Probability has not been on Robbie's side so far this year

Robinson Cano hasn't been at his best this season, but he certainly hasn't hit badly enough to deserve a .246/.285/.358 line underneath his name.

His line drive percentage this year is actually higher than it was last year (19.1% vs. 16.9%) and his flyball/groundball rates are pretty much the same. When I saw this, the first thing I thought of was his hit chart. But according to that, the percentage of balls he pulls, hits up the middle, or goes oppo with are virtually the same as his career norms. In fact, he's hit the ball up the middle more frequently this year. Considering the fact that line drives are the most likely type of batted balls to be hits (they have a 75% probability of being a hit), Cano shouldn't be hitting too badly. But I think this has been a ridiculous case of bad luck. And I mean ridiculous.

Of his 61 line drives this year, just 36 of them have been hits (59%). I want to show you just how improbable it is for a guy to hit 61 line drives and just 36 of them be hits. If you go by the 75% rule, using a Bernoulli distribution, the probability that Cano would get just 36 hits out of 61 line drives is...

0.25%

It's not likely for this to happen all that often. One chance in 400 that this could happen. Basically him hitting the ball this well and have this little to show for it happens once per career at most. He may have another slide like this in his career, but it won't be as a result of luck THIS bad. Now, on the bright side, the chances of 59% of line drives landing for hits continuing, assuming he puts another 200 balls in play at the same line drive rate, is 0.0059%. So as long as he keeps hitting the way he's been hitting, especially lately, he'll be fine.