Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Melky Cabrera: what the hell is going on?

One of the biggest reasons for the Yankees' offensive problems is Melky Cabrera, who's been as close to an automatic out as you can be the last 2 months, after a terrific start. What the hell is going on? We're about to investigate. Let's look at what's happened since his 6th home run.

Sunday, May 4th
.291/.359/.505
6 HR
19.5% LD
44.8% GB
35.6% FB
4.0 P/PA
14/12 K/BB
118 PA, 103 AB

Tuesday, July 1st
.240/.305/.345
7 HR
18.5% LD
45.4% GB
36.1% FB
3.7 P/PA
40 K/27 BB
321 PA, 287 AB

So...

Since Sunday, May 4th
.212/.274/.255
1 HR
26 K/15 BB
3.5 P/PA

OK, so part of this slump is certainly due to bad luck. His PrOPS still has him hitting .280/.340/.421, as aside from the home runs, his batted ball data hasn't changed too much. However, he's seeing half a pitch fewer on average than he was for the first month. He's been way too aggressive at the plate, and he needs to get back the patience he showed his rookie year and in the first month this year. You're not going to hit the ball with good authority when you're overaggressive and that's what's happening with him. And having observed him at the plate, his swing is too long, which leads me to believe that he might have gotten a little homer happy after the first month. Yeah, sure. He's had a lot of bad luck. But you kind of make your own luck when you're swinging early and often for the fences. Wake up, Melky.

1 comment:

KAT said...

i like your perspective...it seems reasonable. with all this talk of trading melky, it seems nearly impossible to support his possibilities. and yet. something as simple as over confidence can, indeed, bring an unwanted effect.

just ask ian kennedy.