Preview of Boston series

Friday night, Joba Chamberlain vs. Josh Beckett
Prediction: Yankees win

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Joba has been awesome, especially his last couple outings.

Joba Chamberlain (2008)
71.1 IP
2.54 ERA (163 ERA+)
1.304 WHIP
84 K/33 BB
3.24 xFIP

Now, going by his xFIP, he might be getting lucky and be due for a correction, but I'm not so sure that's going to happen. Last year AND this year, a strangely low percentage of the flyballs he has allowed have left the ballpark. Last year just 5.0% of his surrendered flyballs went out (screw you, Mike Lowell) and this year just 5.1% of his surrendered flyballs went out. It's just 95.1 IP, so he could be getting lucky because usually pitchers allow closer to 10% of their flyballs to go out, but just by watching him, he doesn't give up a whole lot of deep flyouts, so he could just be an exception. His stuff is hard to zero in on and mash, evidenced anecdotally and statistically by his 13.0% LD allowed and 84 Ks in 71.1 IP. Even if he throws one right down the middle, his average fastball of 95.2 mph is very hard to catch up with especially when you have to be on the lookout for that curve or slider he can drop in for a strike on you. And he's also keeping the ball on the ground effectively this year as 53.7% of balls put in play have been grounders.

Josh Beckett really isn't pitching that much worse this year than last year, it's just that the outcomes are more realistic this year. His newfound control (1.79 BB/9 IP last year in 200.2 IP, 1.88 BB/9 IP this year in 120.0 IP) I am now convinced is not a fluke. Last year I was skeptical, but he's been doing it for the last 320.2 innings so I have to assume that's a new skill he has acquired. He is also striking guys out at virtually the same rate (8.70 K/9 IP last year, 8.48 K/9 IP this year). His batted ball rates are slightly different this year, though, as he's giving up fewer grounders and more line drives this year (47.3% GB/15.8% LD last year and 39.8% GB/21.9% LD this year). So he's clearly more hittable this year than last year, but he's still been good. The biggest difference in my opinion is the FB/HR percentage. Last year a strangely low percentage of Beckett's surrendered flyballs for him went out (8.0%), which I do NOT believe was skill. For his career, he has a 10.4% HR/FB rate and this year it's 11.3%, which is more in line with his career norms.

In his last outing against the Yankees, he got into trouble in the first inning, allowing 3 runs on a 2 run rip double by A-Rod and a sac fly from Giambi. Later in the game, Giambi nearly missed putting up another 2 runs on the board with a bomb but it just hooked foul. Beckett lasted just 6 innings and this was when the Yankees were the WOE. Jeter and Cano are now hot.

I see Cano putting either a Beckett fastball into the monster seats or a hanging curve into the bleachers and Jeter ripping a few doubles to rightcenter tonight. I think the Yankees will win this game. That's B.A. Nostradamus talking.

Saturday night, Andy Pettitte vs. Tim Wakefield
Prediction: Yankees win

I also see the Yankees winning this game. Pettitte wasn't great in his last outing against the Red Sox and he wasn't helped by Jeter's defense or the gods of bloop hits. All of that combines for a bad performance. It is very unlikely to happen again this time, as Pettitte last year seemed to show a trend of good start/bad start vs. the Red Sox, which is kind of how his stuff was last year. This year, his stuff has been very good (3.51 xFIP, 6.77 K/9 IP, 1.29 WHIP) so I doubt that Pettitte's stuff will be absent a second time in a row against the Red Sox.

Wakefield's been pitching way over his head so far this year and I see the Yankees fixing his ERA. His ERA is a fluky 3.69 right now while his xFIP is 4.97. He tends to be under his xFIP but never by 1.28 runs. If his xFIP is 4.97, his ERA should be more like 4.40. xFIP must be lonely because his friend ERA is so far out of town. Maybe the Yankees can do him a solid and bring ERA back to xFIP's neighborhood.

Sunday night, Sidney Ponson vs. Jon Lester
Prediction: Red Sox win

Yikes...

Ponson's been very serviceable and been able to successfully keep the ball on the ground, but with his 8938734.97 WHIP, I am not all that confident that he will be able to hold down the Red Sox lineup especially in Fenway. If he goes 5-6 IP and allows 4-5 runs, I'll be satisfied.

Lester has been much better than I thought he would be. Now, this is the first real full season he's had, so we'll see if he can keep this up. But this does not appear to be a case of luck so far. His xFIP is 4.10, which is certainly a lot higher than his 3.20 ERA, but he has also tended to be a little bit under that every year. So while he's not 3.20 ERA good right now, he's probably 3.80-3.90 good. Hopefully the Yankees don't absolutely suck against him again.

So yeah, these predictions will probably be wrong, but whatever. I predict performance based on relevent stats and observations so I will proudly stick by my picks.