And even better is the fact that I still have time to be wrong. However, I've been right so far on a couple things that either I predicted a while ago or recently predicted.
1. I had said back in January that I thought Josh Beckett would come back to earth this year and be a 3.80-4.00 ERA guy because he will give up more home runs this year.
Josh Beckett's current numbers:
3.98 ERA
15 HR allowed (17 all of last year)
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka's simply not that good.
This is where I'm wrong but I'm right. Don't be fooled by the raw stats here. He's probably been the luckiest son of a bitch I've ever seen for half a season.
2.65 ERA, BUT...
last year's LD/GB/FB percentage: 18.0/38.4/43.6 (flyball pitcher)
this year's LD/GB/FB percentage: 18.0/36.9/45.1 (nothing's changed)
last year's HR/FB ratio: 11.7% (typical, most pitchers aside from the extreme groundball pitchers like Wang/Webb allow anywhere between 8 and 12% of their flyballs to go out, just a question of how many flyballs you allow)
this year's HR/FB ratio: 5.7% (this is just a crime, that's a lower percentage than Wang this year)
last year's WHIP: 1.32 (OK)
this year's WHIP: 1.38 (less OK)
last year's xFIP: 4.42 (indicative of how he pitched)
this year's xFIP: 5.08 (indicative of how much murder he's getting away with)
last year's K/G: 8.9 (very good)
this year's K/G: 7.6 (still solid but not as good)
last year's BB/G: 3.5 (OK)
this year's BB/G: 5.6 (terrible)
If he was whiffing more guys this year, then I could understand why he's gotten away with walking so many people. If he was getting a lot more groundballs, then I could understand why he hasn't given up homers. But he's not doing anything differently. In fact, in a lot of ways, he's been worse! Fewer Ks, more walks, same number of flyballs = bad combination. It really just goes to show you how ERA, like batting average, can be more an indicator of luck than effectiveness. xFIP is much better because it takes away all luck elements that are present in ERA. Then you can see how the two stats match up and that will usually tell you whether or not somebody's for real or not. Therefore, if the baseball gods weren't blowing down Matsuzaka's long flyballs or directing the liners he's allowed right at people, his ERA would be 5.08, a whopping 2.41 above what he's allowed. And even with that low 2.65 ERA, it's kind of useless because he never lasts more than 5.2 innings on average (I'm being generous and excluding his outing against St. Louis after returning from the DL). He is WAY overdue for a big time ERA correction. I hope to see it at 4.50 by the end of this season.
3. Robbie's heating up, bitch
Just like Matsuzaka's due for a bad correction, Cano is due for a good correction. He's always a better hitter in the second half to begin with, and secondly, because of the high probability that his batted ball rates revert somewhat or fully to his career norms, he's probably going to get a little lucky in the second half, too.
Friday, 2 for 4, bleacher creatures HR
Saturday, 4 for 6, 2 rocket doubles to leftcenter, vintage Robbie
Sunday, 2 for 4, 2 rocket singles
Monday, 2 for 5, upper deck HR, single to leftcenter
Good for a post-All Star break line of .526/.526/.947, 2 HR, 2 2B. It's about time he and Jeter put up the numbers they are capable of and Kevin Youkilis started hitting more like Kevin Youkilis and not 2004-2007 Victor Martinez. Lowell's already come back to earth, it should only be a matter of time before Youkilis does. Pedroia's absurd power surge (although not too absurd when all of his home runs came at Great American Bandbox, Camden Yards, Citizens Bank, and Minute Maid) has cooled off as he's now back to being the singles hitter with occasional double power. It's really annoying me that his home/road splits are the same right now. I want the disparity to grow back to where it usually is just to show everyone that he's really just David Eckstein in a little league park.
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