Why Derek Jeter will probably not break out of this slump

You keep reading everywhere, even on here recently, about how the Yankees are going to have a good second half offensively because guys like Jeter, Cano, and Cabrera are likely to improve. Well, Melky combined with bad luck and a bad approach is not improving, which is frustrating as hell. He's capable of being a lot better than this. Cano, aside from those 2 at bats against lefties getting owned on LOOGY crap, has improved. Regardless of whether he gets hits or not (3 for his last 17), he's hitting the ball hard a couple times each night (20.2% LD) and has flown out to the track in death valley or center a couple times in those 17 at bats. Jeter's performance, on the other hand, is just absolutely depressing. First, I will describe how bad he looks to the naked eye, then I will back up my observations with the relevent metrics.

Jeter is hitting like he's Placido Polanco. Poke it, inside out it, slap it, drag the wrists, hit nothing hard, instead of driving the shit out of 2-0 count meatballs, you try to take them right back up the middle and end up grounding into a double play most of the time with the occasional RBI single. He needs to watch video of himself from 1998-1999. He didn't used to poke at everything. He took real swings, kept his weight back and it still yielded a .320+ average but with much more power. He's always been a groundball/line drive type hitter but when he hit the ball in the air, it was usually hit pretty well and a lot of them would go out. Now, not so much. Balls off the bat that look good just die because of his failure to get all of his weight behind each swing. His approach this year and even in 2006 is definitely different from what it used to be. You didn't mind the past 2 seasons because in 2006 he was the true AL MVP and last year he hit .322 with an .840 OPS. Now it's just not acceptable. And particularly this year, he's hitting not to strike out, it seems. Whatever you think you're doing Derek, it's not working.

Derek Jeter LD% (2004-2007)
19.6%, 19.1%, 22.3%, 19.9%
2008
16.6%

Derek Jeter HR/FB % (2004-2007)
12.1%, 16.8%, 14.7%, 9.1%
2008
6.9%

So, as you can see, the statistics back up everything I and probably most people see when watching Derek Jeter hit. He doesn't hit the ball hard --> LD% decrease. Balls that look good off his bat just die --> HR/FB% decrease last year and again this year.

He takes a good hack every now and then giving me hope that he'll start doing it more frequently and then he goes right back to being the GIDP pokemeister. He needs to go back to his 1998-1999 style. Sure, maybe the average drops a little, but even if it did, I'd rather he hit .275 with 20+ HR and as a result, walk more because pitchers won't want to make mistakes to him then hit .285-.290 with a barely .400 SLG.

Baltimore games are a close second in terms of infuriating opponents

Kevin Millar
vs. NYY, 2004-present, discounting sac flies and HBPs, because including them would just lower or boost his OBP a few insignificant points
.324/.401/.566
88 for 272
35 BB
13 2B/1 3B/17 HR

overall, since 2004
.269/.356/.431
600 for 2227
133 2B/2 3B/74 HR
301 BB

That's annoying enough. But, take out his games against the Yankees...

.262/.350/.412
512 for 1955
120 2B/1 3B/57 HR
266 BB

So, against the Yankees, Kevin Millar is basically David Wright without being nearly as likeable and against the rest of the league he's even worse than the bottom-third-in-OPS-by-AL-first-basemen type of hitter that he already is.

Surprisingly, Brian Roberts' splits are not nearly as lopsided as I thought they would be. He just had that one insane season in which he OPS'd 1.400 against the Yankees in 2005, so anytime he gets a hit or steals a base, I just can't help but think of that season during which he owned the Yankees. Aside from that aberration, he's been the same player. Maybe he decided to hate the Yankees in 2005 and made a deal with the devil to kill them, but then when the Yankees broke his arm he decided he'd be better not try pissing the Yankees off again.

And oh yeah, this guy...

Ramon Hernandez
overall, career
.262/.326/.423
1001 for 3814
198 2B/6 3B/134 HR
322 BB

vs. NYY
.332/.404/.556
80 for 241
16 2B/1 3B/12 HR
25 BB

I think he's due for a Brian Roberts-esque Yankee Stadium lesson. Maybe A-Rod can knock a few balls into monument park and knock Ramon Hernandez into the upper deck on a play at the plate tonight. And then say, "HA!"

Come on, guys. Get back on a winning streak! AND PLEASE STOP LOSING THE GODDAMN BALTIMORE ORIOLES!!!!!!!

2 out of 3 ain't bad...

But I was 3 for 3, bitch. What did B.A. tell you?

On Friday, Beckett only gave up that 1 run (I expected him to allow more) but he did allow 10 baserunners in 7 innings, so you could chalk it up to a little bit of luck. Joba on the other hand was just God.

On Saturday, the Yankees were nice enough to give Wakefield's ERA a lift back to his xFIP's neighborhood, like I'd hoped. Robby pwns.

On Sunday, Ponson got knocked around as expected. Lester pitched well, again...but losing last night didn't hurt at all. I saw it as a loss days ago. And this could be a good thing. Might mean Ian Kennedy gets another shot, now.

And now onto other things...

Mike Lupica:

If Mike Pelfrey had an unusual nickname, people might get as excited about the way he's pitching for the Mets as Yankee fans are about Joba.

I heard about this on Saturday, read a few other comments on it by more level-headed people, including the ENOUGH LUPICA! blog, but I figured I'd make mention of this.

Joba Chamberlain:

a. has an ERA+ of 180. He's 80% better than league average.
b. strikes out 10.69/9 IP.
c. throws a fastball that AVERAGES 95.2 mph, touches 98-100, to go along with a nasty slider and a pretty good curve (changeup is rarely thrown).
d. pitches in AL East, probably the best and toughest division in baseball.
e. is 22 years old!!!

Mike Pelfrey:

a. has an ERA+ of 112. He's 12% better than league average in an inferior league.
b. strikes out 5.36/9 IP and doesn't have a ridiculously high GB/FB ratio.
c. throws 93 mph on average.
d. is 24 and has been up and down between the majors and AAA for 2 seasons.

He's been good, especially lately, but come on. Mike Pelfrey in the AL East would probably be league average or worse.

What Mike Lupica SHOULD say is, "Think Joba's incredible in the AL? Imagine how good he would be if he pitched in Mike Pelfrey's slot."

And my GOD...was last night's ESPN broadcast one long makeout session with the Red Sox or what? Even the biggest Red Sox fan couldn't deny that after watching this game.

A deep drive by Jeter to left center (though it wouldn't have been deep anywhere else because most parks don't have 11 and 12 year old tournament league dimensions) that Ellsbury had to jump for (ungracefully) because he misjudged it and they're showing one replay after another. Now, Ellsbury's definitely made some awesome catches and he is a better outfielder than he looked on that play, but we don't need to see 3 replays of an unnecessarily adventurous catch.

Derek Jeter charging in on a weak grounder fields and whips to first in time, while sort of like apples and oranges, was clearly better since Jeter had no other way to play it, and all you hear is a "nice play by Jeter, there..." out of Jon Miller's bacon fat loving mouth under his breath, basically.

And then with the Red Sox already up 5 runs, they pick up two more runs on a sac fly and an RBI single by Big Floppy and Manny "I beat up 70 year old secretaries, I'm so tough" Ramirez respectively and Steve Phillips is praising them with, "You know, this is just great baseball by the Boston Red Sox." I am tempted...VERY tempted...to start a blog dedicated to just disemboweling Steve Phillips and his brilliance. But then again, it would take too much time to cover all the stupid things he says on a daily basis, and besides, is it really a challenge to own Steve Phillips?

ESPN. The Egregious Sox-loving Pricks Network.

Preview of Boston series

Friday night, Joba Chamberlain vs. Josh Beckett
Prediction: Yankees win

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Joba has been awesome, especially his last couple outings.

Joba Chamberlain (2008)
71.1 IP
2.54 ERA (163 ERA+)
1.304 WHIP
84 K/33 BB
3.24 xFIP

Now, going by his xFIP, he might be getting lucky and be due for a correction, but I'm not so sure that's going to happen. Last year AND this year, a strangely low percentage of the flyballs he has allowed have left the ballpark. Last year just 5.0% of his surrendered flyballs went out (screw you, Mike Lowell) and this year just 5.1% of his surrendered flyballs went out. It's just 95.1 IP, so he could be getting lucky because usually pitchers allow closer to 10% of their flyballs to go out, but just by watching him, he doesn't give up a whole lot of deep flyouts, so he could just be an exception. His stuff is hard to zero in on and mash, evidenced anecdotally and statistically by his 13.0% LD allowed and 84 Ks in 71.1 IP. Even if he throws one right down the middle, his average fastball of 95.2 mph is very hard to catch up with especially when you have to be on the lookout for that curve or slider he can drop in for a strike on you. And he's also keeping the ball on the ground effectively this year as 53.7% of balls put in play have been grounders.

Josh Beckett really isn't pitching that much worse this year than last year, it's just that the outcomes are more realistic this year. His newfound control (1.79 BB/9 IP last year in 200.2 IP, 1.88 BB/9 IP this year in 120.0 IP) I am now convinced is not a fluke. Last year I was skeptical, but he's been doing it for the last 320.2 innings so I have to assume that's a new skill he has acquired. He is also striking guys out at virtually the same rate (8.70 K/9 IP last year, 8.48 K/9 IP this year). His batted ball rates are slightly different this year, though, as he's giving up fewer grounders and more line drives this year (47.3% GB/15.8% LD last year and 39.8% GB/21.9% LD this year). So he's clearly more hittable this year than last year, but he's still been good. The biggest difference in my opinion is the FB/HR percentage. Last year a strangely low percentage of Beckett's surrendered flyballs for him went out (8.0%), which I do NOT believe was skill. For his career, he has a 10.4% HR/FB rate and this year it's 11.3%, which is more in line with his career norms.

In his last outing against the Yankees, he got into trouble in the first inning, allowing 3 runs on a 2 run rip double by A-Rod and a sac fly from Giambi. Later in the game, Giambi nearly missed putting up another 2 runs on the board with a bomb but it just hooked foul. Beckett lasted just 6 innings and this was when the Yankees were the WOE. Jeter and Cano are now hot.

I see Cano putting either a Beckett fastball into the monster seats or a hanging curve into the bleachers and Jeter ripping a few doubles to rightcenter tonight. I think the Yankees will win this game. That's B.A. Nostradamus talking.

Saturday night, Andy Pettitte vs. Tim Wakefield
Prediction: Yankees win

I also see the Yankees winning this game. Pettitte wasn't great in his last outing against the Red Sox and he wasn't helped by Jeter's defense or the gods of bloop hits. All of that combines for a bad performance. It is very unlikely to happen again this time, as Pettitte last year seemed to show a trend of good start/bad start vs. the Red Sox, which is kind of how his stuff was last year. This year, his stuff has been very good (3.51 xFIP, 6.77 K/9 IP, 1.29 WHIP) so I doubt that Pettitte's stuff will be absent a second time in a row against the Red Sox.

Wakefield's been pitching way over his head so far this year and I see the Yankees fixing his ERA. His ERA is a fluky 3.69 right now while his xFIP is 4.97. He tends to be under his xFIP but never by 1.28 runs. If his xFIP is 4.97, his ERA should be more like 4.40. xFIP must be lonely because his friend ERA is so far out of town. Maybe the Yankees can do him a solid and bring ERA back to xFIP's neighborhood.

Sunday night, Sidney Ponson vs. Jon Lester
Prediction: Red Sox win

Yikes...

Ponson's been very serviceable and been able to successfully keep the ball on the ground, but with his 8938734.97 WHIP, I am not all that confident that he will be able to hold down the Red Sox lineup especially in Fenway. If he goes 5-6 IP and allows 4-5 runs, I'll be satisfied.

Lester has been much better than I thought he would be. Now, this is the first real full season he's had, so we'll see if he can keep this up. But this does not appear to be a case of luck so far. His xFIP is 4.10, which is certainly a lot higher than his 3.20 ERA, but he has also tended to be a little bit under that every year. So while he's not 3.20 ERA good right now, he's probably 3.80-3.90 good. Hopefully the Yankees don't absolutely suck against him again.

So yeah, these predictions will probably be wrong, but whatever. I predict performance based on relevent stats and observations so I will proudly stick by my picks.

BREAKING NEWS: There is hope for normality in Boston!!!!! (well, not really, but at least normality has some representation)

I love you, Kevin Cullen.

The Yankees are in town for a weekend series, and this would be a nice time to retire the stupidest chant in the world: Yankees suck.

Boston fan? Wants people to stop saying, "Yankees suck"? Huh?

Now, before you go all Hank Steinbrenner on me, hear me out.

I don't like the Yankees. I never did, though as a kid I liked the way Bobby Murcer played the outfield, and for some odd reason I always wanted Horace Clarke to do well.

But I am a Red Sox fan, have been all my life, and so that means I don't like the Yankees. My two sons don't like the Yankees either.

Fair enough. No problem with that.

But here's the critical difference: I respect the Yankees, and I've taught my sons to do so, too. They are 14 and 11, love baseball, and know that Derek Jeter plays the game as well and as hard as anyone has. If I were picking sides in the schoolyard, Jeter is the guy I'd pick first.

If you watch him in the on-deck circle at Fenway, Jeter turns and talks to the kids. He's one of the few players who seem to comprehend how lucky he is to be playing a game and making millions doing it. He's class, all the way, and he's the Yankees captain, epitomizes them as a team, and the hell with the Boss, this is Jeter's team.

He has to be on drugs. I cannot believe a Red Sox fan is capable of writing this and presenting it as his own. Jack, if you're not busy, this guy might need to be brought into protective CTU custody.

So when you say the Yankees suck, you're saying Derek Jeter sucks, which is preposterous.

Damn right.

But, really, beyond being crude and moronic, the phrase "Yankees suck" is simply outdated. Its origins are from a bygone era, when we all knew deep down in our hearts that no matter how far ahead the Red Sox might have been in August, no matter the score and inning of a game in October, the Yankees were going to win. And there was nothing we could do about it.

The way it ought to be.

But that's over. It's been over since October 2004, when "Yankees suck" should have been put out to pasture. Shouting "Yankees suck" at Fenway Park today is like yelling "No Taxation Without Representation!" at Faneuil Hall.

Whatever you think of "Yankees suck," it used to mean something, but now it doesn't. It is mindless, as those who chant it often are. I was at Game 7 of the Celtics-Hawks playoff series, and when it became apparent that the C's would win, some in the crowd started chanting "Yankees suck."

"Dad," my oldest asked, "why are they saying that at a Celtics game?"

"Because," I replied, "they're too stupid to think up anything else."

*choirs of angels singing*

Thank you, God. There is hope for Boston yet. I hope that this man temporarily becomes a Mormon, marries 60 women, has 12 kids with each one, and each kid marries 60 different people, and each couple has another 12 kids...all of whom are raised in this same environment to not be morons.

Then there will be a legitimate army to combat the douchebags that comprise so much of the present Boston and Massachusetts population.

Now, sit back, and think long and hard for a moment. Have you ever said "Yankees suck"? Think of the people you have seen or heard saying this over the years. My experience has been that most people who shout "Yankees suck" are either drunk, obnoxious, or stupid and very often a combination of all three. They are an embarrassment to the rest of us, and their chant makes us look like a bunch of local yokels.

I know this will fall on deaf ears, and "Yankees suck" will be sung lustily all weekend in the bleachers and grandstand, then on Brookline Avenue as guys who have already had too much to drink mosey down to Kenmore Square, looking for more booze or a fight.

But if in this day and age you continue to yell "Yankees suck," it says a lot more about you than the team you think you're insulting.

Excellent article, my friend. Nobody can better speak the truth than one who lives among them and roots for the same team.

Hey, I'm not innocent of the opposite, though it's not the same to chant "Boston sucks!" because while it definitely implies the Red Sox, I see it as sort of a general statement about Boston itself, its obnoxious citizens, and their inferiority to New York.

And in a way, I sort of disagree with Cullen. If I were a Red Sox fan, I would chant "Yankees suck!" for fun, when appropriate of course (if the Red Sox are up by 10 runs or if the Yankees are arguing with an umpire, certainly not at a goddamn Celtics game) fully knowing that they don't suck. On the other hand, Cullen probably knows that people like that don't exist. The morons who chant it do think the Yankees suck. Derek Jeter could be hitting .350 with a .440 OBP, he sucks. A-Rod could be OPS'ing 150 pts higher than Ortiz, he's still not as good as Big Papi, or Manny. And Papelbon is so much better than Mariano, even though Mariano's WHIP and ERA are way lower. Idiots.

Thank you, Kevin Cullen. It's people like you that Boston needs a lot more of.

This shit makes me happy to be wrong

Mike Mussina is in better shape this year and his fastball is hitting 88-90, which is enough for him to put up 180 innings or so of about an average ERA.

That is what I said back in March.

Mike Mussina
13-6 (and it'd be better if the WOE hadn't been disguising as the NY Yankees during a few of his starts)
121.1 IP
3.26 ERA (126 ERA+)
1.212 WHIP
81 K/16 BB

Fluke? I think not...

3.57 xFIP

That stat is key right there. Showing he's not getting lucky and that he truly is pitching well.

And in his last 10 starts:

68 IP
2.25 ERA
1.09 WHIP
52 K/7 BB

With the luck the Yankees had trotting out Cracked Ribs and Bad Pitch Selection, Mike Mussina has practically made up for losing one of them.

God among men. I just hope he can continue this.

Colonel Decker, just capture me, you'd probably make better company during a Yankees game than my dad

My dad once again babbling about Bobby Abreu.

You look at Bobby Abreu, and you wouldn't think he's so fast...

Yes, I know. You've only told me this about 5 times in the last week or two. Anytime I repeat myself too often, which I unfortunately do from time to time, I blame you for forcing it upon me.

He's not bad defensively, either!

I believe you mentioned that before as well. And no, he's not good defensively. He's saved 17 runs fewer than average. That's 1.7 wins he's cost us defensively.

He's been great! (to which I respond by saying he's OK, and that he's actually slightly below average offensively for a right fielder, to which he responds) I have a hard time believing that.

Bobby Abreu
.277/.349/.443

I'm too lazy to add up at bats, plate appearances, hits, total bases, walks, sacrifices, etc. to calculate the correct averages, but since every qualified right fielder has at minimum 360 plate appearances, I'm going to just add up the averages and get a mean approximation for right fielders.

Rough average for right fielder
.281/.351/.467

So Abreu is a few pts below in batting average (negligible), a few points below in OBA (also negligible), and slugging average is a decent chunk below. He's certainly not terrible offensively, but he is a little below average right now. Not to say he will be for the rest of the season, but as of now, he is. Why is it so hard to understand this? Oh wait, I'm forgetting to account for something...

You have to factor for playing in New York, you know? There are so many people who have played elsewhere and put up great numbers, and then they come to New York and they suck! That's why sometimes it's better when you have homegrown guys, they develop in New York. You have guys like Brian Doyle, they rise to the occasion. Some people can take it. Others can't. It's really hard. It's easy to show off your skills in the middle of Ohio someplace, but a lot harder at Yankee Stadium in front of 57,000 people.

Yes, that's right. If you add in the ichNYcIhnb (I can't handle NY cuz I have no balls) factor, Bobby Abreu is just as good as Jermaine Dye.

At this point it's taking every ounce of my energy not to scream, "My GOD, are you an idiot?!" And you were a math major for crying out loud. Why is all your analysis based in platitudes and not in stats?! It probably is true that there were some people that weren't cut out to play in New York. You know what? What you said might very well be true, but you can't just say shit that sounds stupid without some sort of evidence to corroborate your theory. Aren't you a lawyer, too? This is the kind of crap I expect out of someone who wasted his or her parents' $100,000+ to study poetry or art or women's gender studies. Oh no, you're still not done...

Just look at Jose Contreras! He sucked for the Yankees. He goes to the White Sox and he wins a World Series. Then he comes back to Yankee Stadium and they kicked his ass!

*Insert Dr. Cox and Westminster Chime* WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONNNNNNNNNG....WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONNNNNNNNNG!!!! YER WRONNNG! YER WRONNNG! YER WRONNNG!

Jose Contreras
(career)
4.57 ERA
1.36 WHIP
6.54 K/9 IP
3.23 BB/9 IP
(vs. Yankees)
4.20 ERA
1.24 WHIP
6 K/9 IP
2.2 BB/9 IP

He has actually pitched BETTER than his career norms against the Yankees with the exception of strikeouts, and he is all of 3 strikeouts off his career rate for that many innings pitched. Not that this is a significant departure from his usual numbers especially considering the 45 inning sample size, but for God's sake. Do you EVER say anything without being sure that it's correct or reasonable first?

Capture me, cripple me, kill me...or just lift the blackout restrictions on MLB.tv so I can watch the games on my computer. Please?

I love when I'm right because it's so rare...or I can be wrong but right, too...

And even better is the fact that I still have time to be wrong. However, I've been right so far on a couple things that either I predicted a while ago or recently predicted.

1. I had said back in January that I thought Josh Beckett would come back to earth this year and be a 3.80-4.00 ERA guy because he will give up more home runs this year.

Josh Beckett's current numbers:
3.98 ERA
15 HR allowed (17 all of last year)

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka's simply not that good.

This is where I'm wrong but I'm right. Don't be fooled by the raw stats here. He's probably been the luckiest son of a bitch I've ever seen for half a season.

2.65 ERA, BUT...

last year's LD/GB/FB percentage: 18.0/38.4/43.6 (flyball pitcher)
this year's LD/GB/FB percentage: 18.0/36.9/45.1 (nothing's changed)

last year's HR/FB ratio: 11.7% (typical, most pitchers aside from the extreme groundball pitchers like Wang/Webb allow anywhere between 8 and 12% of their flyballs to go out, just a question of how many flyballs you allow)
this year's HR/FB ratio: 5.7% (this is just a crime, that's a lower percentage than Wang this year)

last year's WHIP: 1.32 (OK)
this year's WHIP: 1.38 (less OK)

last year's xFIP: 4.42 (indicative of how he pitched)
this year's xFIP: 5.08 (indicative of how much murder he's getting away with)

last year's K/G: 8.9 (very good)
this year's K/G: 7.6 (still solid but not as good)

last year's BB/G: 3.5 (OK)
this year's BB/G: 5.6 (terrible)

If he was whiffing more guys this year, then I could understand why he's gotten away with walking so many people. If he was getting a lot more groundballs, then I could understand why he hasn't given up homers. But he's not doing anything differently. In fact, in a lot of ways, he's been worse! Fewer Ks, more walks, same number of flyballs = bad combination. It really just goes to show you how ERA, like batting average, can be more an indicator of luck than effectiveness. xFIP is much better because it takes away all luck elements that are present in ERA. Then you can see how the two stats match up and that will usually tell you whether or not somebody's for real or not. Therefore, if the baseball gods weren't blowing down Matsuzaka's long flyballs or directing the liners he's allowed right at people, his ERA would be 5.08, a whopping 2.41 above what he's allowed. And even with that low 2.65 ERA, it's kind of useless because he never lasts more than 5.2 innings on average (I'm being generous and excluding his outing against St. Louis after returning from the DL). He is WAY overdue for a big time ERA correction. I hope to see it at 4.50 by the end of this season.

3. Robbie's heating up, bitch

Just like Matsuzaka's due for a bad correction, Cano is due for a good correction. He's always a better hitter in the second half to begin with, and secondly, because of the high probability that his batted ball rates revert somewhat or fully to his career norms, he's probably going to get a little lucky in the second half, too.

Friday, 2 for 4, bleacher creatures HR
Saturday, 4 for 6, 2 rocket doubles to leftcenter, vintage Robbie
Sunday, 2 for 4, 2 rocket singles
Monday, 2 for 5, upper deck HR, single to leftcenter

Good for a post-All Star break line of .526/.526/.947, 2 HR, 2 2B. It's about time he and Jeter put up the numbers they are capable of and Kevin Youkilis started hitting more like Kevin Youkilis and not 2004-2007 Victor Martinez. Lowell's already come back to earth, it should only be a matter of time before Youkilis does. Pedroia's absurd power surge (although not too absurd when all of his home runs came at Great American Bandbox, Camden Yards, Citizens Bank, and Minute Maid) has cooled off as he's now back to being the singles hitter with occasional double power. It's really annoying me that his home/road splits are the same right now. I want the disparity to grow back to where it usually is just to show everyone that he's really just David Eckstein in a little league park.

Probability has not been on Robbie's side so far this year

Robinson Cano hasn't been at his best this season, but he certainly hasn't hit badly enough to deserve a .246/.285/.358 line underneath his name.

His line drive percentage this year is actually higher than it was last year (19.1% vs. 16.9%) and his flyball/groundball rates are pretty much the same. When I saw this, the first thing I thought of was his hit chart. But according to that, the percentage of balls he pulls, hits up the middle, or goes oppo with are virtually the same as his career norms. In fact, he's hit the ball up the middle more frequently this year. Considering the fact that line drives are the most likely type of batted balls to be hits (they have a 75% probability of being a hit), Cano shouldn't be hitting too badly. But I think this has been a ridiculous case of bad luck. And I mean ridiculous.

Of his 61 line drives this year, just 36 of them have been hits (59%). I want to show you just how improbable it is for a guy to hit 61 line drives and just 36 of them be hits. If you go by the 75% rule, using a Bernoulli distribution, the probability that Cano would get just 36 hits out of 61 line drives is...

0.25%

It's not likely for this to happen all that often. One chance in 400 that this could happen. Basically him hitting the ball this well and have this little to show for it happens once per career at most. He may have another slide like this in his career, but it won't be as a result of luck THIS bad. Now, on the bright side, the chances of 59% of line drives landing for hits continuing, assuming he puts another 200 balls in play at the same line drive rate, is 0.0059%. So as long as he keeps hitting the way he's been hitting, especially lately, he'll be fine.

Believe it or not, I'm actually defending Jonathan Papelbon

If you read this blog, you know our feelings on Jonathan Papelbon. I think he's a prick and while his numbers the past couple years have been spectacular, I think the numbers he's put up this year are more indicative of the kind of pitcher he is. Very very good, but not lights out unhittable.

And yes, he said something really stupid by saying, "If I was managing the team, I would close." It's Yankee Stadium in its final year. Mariano Rivera, at age 38, is still throwing 93 mph, looks-down-the-middle-then-it's-on-your-fists cutters, striking out over a batter per inning, walking someone as often as a relationship works out for Jack Bauer (sorry Jack, but forget about Audrey, Secretary Heller wouldn't make a very nice father-in-law and there are plenty of other fish in the sea) and has yet to blow a save this season. Forget about closing this game. However, while Papelbon should have known that saying something like that was going to cause problems, the Daily News still should get a good share of the blame as they made it out to be much worse than it was as Papelbon did not "dis" Mariano. After hearing and reading about what he had said through biased sources, my initial reaction was, "Typical Papelbon jackass comments" and wondered why the Nick Blackburns and Chris Youngs of the world get hit with line drives in the face and not pompous jerks like Papelbon or K-Rod. (And I shouldn't say things like that. That's just a kneejerk reaction on my part. I don't honestly wish harm on jackass pitchers. I do wish that they suck, though...) But in this case it wasn't. He said that Mariano was the "godfather" of closers and that Mariano's done so much to make what the closer role has become today. His stated reason for thinking he should close was because of last year's World Series, not because he thinks he's better than Mariano. The logic being, Francona gets to manage, he should have the right to use his guy to close out the game. While the logic is wrong in this case, and Papelbon acknowledged that it's not that cut and dry, it's certainly not indefensible.

The "I don't mind deferring to an elder statesman" line could be seen as a dis, but honestly, I don't think that was his intent because it was followed by the "godfather" comment. He has said other, much more annoying and pompous things and you can read one of them in my post about a week ago. This is why I hate the Daily News and just the media in general. People rely on them to get information and they transform non-stories into controversies and most people (including myself at first, until I read more about it) are going to base their opinions and/or actions based on the information made available to them. Now, if what Papelbon said is true about his wife being threatened, then that is disgraceful and the people who did that are classless regardless of what information they had. That makes me embarrassed to be a Yankees fan and a New Yorker. While I think that the average Boston fans are definitely worse as they start victory riots, light cars on fire, get themselves arrested, run players out of town with death threats, and yell racial slurs at players, neither Yankees fans nor fans anywhere should emulate those behaviors. And it just goes to show you that there are idiot fans EVERYWHERE you go, it's just a matter of degree. Papelbon, I hate your guts but the non-idiot Yankees fans wish no harm to you and your wife and hope your child is born healthy. I just hope you don't pass your genes onto him.

I can't wait for the season to kick back up again.

B.A. needs Cablevision or DirecTV in the basement of his hideout from the U.S. Army

Because I can't bear to sit through another game with my dad...

"Abreu is great. You'd never think he was so fast! And aside from the fear of the wall, he's a pretty good fielder, too! And a great arm!" (heard approximately 3-4 times this week)

(after Jeter grounded into his 13th double play of the season, two shy of leading the league, just minutes after I predicted it) "He did hit a 2-run double earlier, so you owe him an apology."

"You know who the bench coach is in Tampa Bay? Zimmer! Why do you think they're in first place?!" (relatively new, but I expect that to be said every time the Rays' success comes up)

"Now he'll hit a home run." (refering to A-Rod when the Yankees were up by 4 runs, in the 8th inning)

This is just several of the many painful things I get to listen to while watching the games. Just to clarify:

Bobby Abreu: .871 RZR (2nd worst in AL), 9 OOZ plays (worst in AL)
Derek Jeter: one 2-run double makes up for grounding into 13 double plays in a little over half a season.
Don Zimmer: the reason the Rays pitching staff has a 114 ERA+ and that Evan Longoria has a near-.900 OPS at age 22
A-Rod: his fault that pitchers have walked him 17 times in 101 PA w/RISP. W/RISP, A-Rod hits .244/.396/.449. Not great, but that's still not terrible. What should clue you in is the OBP. People don't give A-Rod shit to hit, even with a hot Giambi behind him, because he's that fucking good. Besides, it's 78 at bats, and he's caught a few bad breaks so far (.294 BABIP w/RISP vs. .335 total).

Please have a heart. Help B.A. avoid killing himself and give him DirecTV in the basement so he can watch the game in peace...

2008 Andy Pettitte

Great job by Pettitte last night, who has been pitching pretty well this year even though at times it hasn't seemed like it.

His LD% allowed is 19.5, the same as last year. His GB% allowed is 52.4% up from 47.7% last year. He's allowing fewer flyballs, which is great, the unfortunate thing is a more typical 11.5% of those flyballs have found their way out of the ballpark versus last year's 7.0% FB/HR. He probably got lucky last year, but as long as he can keep the flyball rate down the way he has, he'll be fine.

He's walking fewer batters (2.19/9 IP vs. 2.88/9 IP) and striking out more batters (6.43/9 IP vs. 5.89/9 IP, probably because he has substitued more cutters for changeups this season). Overall, he's pitching better this year than he did last year. His xFIP last year was 4.47 and actual ERA was 4.05, with a WHIP of 1.43 (blech). However this year his xFIP is down to 3.60 and actual ERA is 3.93 with a WHIP of 1.33.

Pettitte usually gets stronger as the season goes along. Career wise, in the first half he strikes out 6.36/9 IP, walks 2.97/9IP, and has an ERA of 4.11 and a WHIP of 1.40. In the second half, he strikes out 6.79/9 IP, walks 2.58/9 IP, and has an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.30. I think we can expect a great second half from Andy.

If a meteor came down and annihilated Fenway Park, I would laugh

Manny Ramirez's HR yesterday:

True Distance
381 feet

OK, that ball's not out in Yankee Stadium or several other ballparks in baseball, but not terrible. Oh wait...

Impact due to:
Wind - 38 feet
Temp - 3 feet

Standard Distance
340 feet

NOT a HR in any MLB ballpark.

Can anything ever just go totally wrong for the Red Sox at Fenway? I hope Beckett gets absolutely shelled tonight and gives up 5 400+ foot homers.

Jonathan Papelbon: you are an unprofessional piece of shit

Re: Gardner's hit (and maybe even Cano's hit, too)

"Seems like that's what's going to happen if you're going to beat me this year: broken bat or find-your-way-through-the-infield somehow," Papelbon said. "I've got to be able to go out and get the first guy."

First of all, that's a classless thing to say. If you're talking about Cano's hit, you're an idiot. Cano hit that ball hard right back through the middle. He's a good hitter who has found his stroke and you didn't get the ball up in the zone enough. Regarding Gardner, give him some credit, you fucking schmuck. He fouled off your mighty, intimidating fishface fastball time after time...then you and Vaginatek stupidly decide to try a splitter instead of just continuing with the fastball due to the likelihood that eventually one of his swings would yield a fair flyball, and after having sped up Gardner's bat, he grounds one right up the middle. Sure, he didn't hit it hard, but he didn't try to do to much with it, took the right approach, and it won the game. Quit whining, you fag.

Secondly, you only get beat on broken bats and weakly hit balls?
I guess that's what happened here...and here...and here...and here...

Besides, unlike most people, I didn't forget about the 5 or 6 400 foot outs you gave up in the postseason last year that luckily for you did not find their way over the wall. Or the 407 foot out you gave up to Abreu just 2 days earlier. That Braun home run you gave up was clocked at 115 MPH off his bat. Papsmear, contrary to what you may believe, people can hit the ball hard off you. I hope you blow 5 more saves this year, all on 450 foot game-winning grand slams with baserunners you put on. Then you tear your shoulder on another one of your typical first pitch fastballs that A-Rod turns into a 575 foot game-winning 3 run homer. And then you fall into the highly populated category of people who became irrelevent just 2-3 years after everyone dubbed them the new Mariano.

Alright, not bad...

Thursday and Friday sucked, but Saturday and Sunday weren't too shabby, as the Yankees managed a split.

Mussina turned in another absolute gem on Saturday. Man, who would have expected Mike Mussina to compensate for his loss of velocity with such impeccable command. With a 3.77 xFIP, this hasn't been fluky. He's been as good as his numbers dictate. Hopefully this continues.

Mariano decided to do his best John Wetteland impression on Saturday, allowing a run and loading the bases with nobody out with a 1 run lead, but then turned back into good Mariano and got out of it. He's been incredible. 92.6 MPH cutter. 10.26 K/9 IP. 0.67 BB/9 IP. 29.4% of the flyballs he's allowed have been infield flies. And that home run he gave up to DeJesus was kind of a joke. It carried 404 feet into the bleachers, but without the wind and temperature that ball is a 361 foot flyout. So he got a tad unlucky with that. I hope he can keep closing when he's 50, because he has set Yankees fans' expectations so high that even when he allows a hit almost seems unacceptable. Forget about the guy who follows him.

Joba looked pretty good, too. He allowed 3 ER in 6 IP, but combined with the fact he really was not hit all that hard, he fanned 5 in those 6 IP, and it could have been more if he had more borderline calls go his way, I'm pleased with his performance.

Cano continues to swing the bat well, as he's hitting .375/.390/.556 over his last 20 games. His triple off Lopez was huge. He also picked up a solid single up the middle off Papsmear to set up the GW-single for Brett Gardner, whom I will get to next. Cano's walk rate might be down from last year (5.9% to 4.1%), but that's a function of the pitches he's seeing. Last year he swung at 34.43% of pitches out of the strike zone. This year, however, he has swung at just 28.60% of pitches out of the strike zone. Pitchers are simply throwing him a lot more strikes, and why wouldn't you? He wasn't hitting up until recently. I have a feeling he's going to start drawing more walks pretty soon now that he appears to be out of his funk.

Brett Gardner's proving to be a pretty solid player. He's only hitting .143, but he's had a lot of good at bats, seeing 4.4 P/PA so far, including that 8 pitch battle off Papsmear last night. He's a pretty good defender and has a solid arm. His strikeout rate was high in the minors, but I think that's simply because he takes tons of pitches. So far in the majors, he makes contact with just about everything he swings at. As long as he can be a down-on-the-ball, hit-it-where-it's-pitched kind of hitter, he will be a useful player.

Oh yeah, hey Papsmear. Mariano >> you.

And Red Sox fans, I know you guys like to talk about how the Red Sox do better than most teams against Mariano, but take a look at this...

Jonathan Papelbon (career vs. NYY, 2008 vs. NYY)
0-3
20.0 IP
1.20 WHIP
3.60 ERA
6 for 8 in SV opportunities

0-1
4.0 IP
1.50 WHIP
9.00 ERA
2 for 2 in SV opportunities

Papsmear doesn't have it so easy against the Bronx Bombers either...

Mariano >> Papsmear

Derek: are you TRYING to hit into double plays?

11 GIDPs, and if it weren't for Ian Kinsler sucking, you'd have 12 GIDPs this year. What the hell is going on with you?

For your career, your LD% since 2002 has been 20.8%.

This year it's 15.9%. You've always been a groundball type hitter, but you always hit a lot of liners to go with it, so you usually hit a lot of hard grounders, too. But now those previously hard grounders that snuck through holes are hit too weakly to evade leather...or 2 outs...

Possible reason for Derek Jeter's problems:

While he's swinging at almost the identical percentage of balls in and out of the strike zone as last year, he's making contact with a higher percentage of balls out of the strike zone. That's bad. In 2006, when he hit .343, he only swung out of the strike zone 18.53% of the time, while making contact on just 52.77% of those swings. Now it's 21.24% of the time and 70.77% of those swings have resulted in contact. BAD.

His K rate is down from 16.4% to 12.1% from 2006, his should-have-been MVP season. However his walk rate's down from 10.0% to 7.0%.

Solution: Derek, stop swinging at balls out of the zone. You're being too protective at the plate. You're better off striking out more often if it means you'll be more patient and hit more line drives. Besides, it'd be real nice. As Earl Weaver would say, if you're going to hit into a double play, do the right thing and strike out.

Melky Cabrera: what the hell is going on?

One of the biggest reasons for the Yankees' offensive problems is Melky Cabrera, who's been as close to an automatic out as you can be the last 2 months, after a terrific start. What the hell is going on? We're about to investigate. Let's look at what's happened since his 6th home run.

Sunday, May 4th
.291/.359/.505
6 HR
19.5% LD
44.8% GB
35.6% FB
4.0 P/PA
14/12 K/BB
118 PA, 103 AB

Tuesday, July 1st
.240/.305/.345
7 HR
18.5% LD
45.4% GB
36.1% FB
3.7 P/PA
40 K/27 BB
321 PA, 287 AB

So...

Since Sunday, May 4th
.212/.274/.255
1 HR
26 K/15 BB
3.5 P/PA

OK, so part of this slump is certainly due to bad luck. His PrOPS still has him hitting .280/.340/.421, as aside from the home runs, his batted ball data hasn't changed too much. However, he's seeing half a pitch fewer on average than he was for the first month. He's been way too aggressive at the plate, and he needs to get back the patience he showed his rookie year and in the first month this year. You're not going to hit the ball with good authority when you're overaggressive and that's what's happening with him. And having observed him at the plate, his swing is too long, which leads me to believe that he might have gotten a little homer happy after the first month. Yeah, sure. He's had a lot of bad luck. But you kind of make your own luck when you're swinging early and often for the fences. Wake up, Melky.

This team is so clutch, a joy to watch

Yankees with RISP this year:

.251/.334/.371

Last night: 0-6. And yet another good start from Mike Mussina wasted.

Let me say a few words to express how this makes me feel...

GODDAMMIT YOU MOTHERFUCKING GUTLESS FUCKS STOP SUCKING IS IT TOO MUCH TO ASK FOR YOU TO GET SOME HITS WITH MEN ON BASE AGAINST A GUY WITH AN 88 ERA+ YOU WORTHLESS SACKS OF SHIT IF YOU DON'T START HITTING BETTER WITH RUNNERS ON AND YOU DON'T TAKE THE NEXT TWO GAMES FROM TEXAS AND THEN THREE OUT OF FOUR FROM THE RED SOX I WILL CALL JACK BAUER AND HE WILL TORTURE THE HELL OUT OF YOU DEAD FROM THE NECK UP FUCKS TRUST ME HE TORTURED HIS OWN BROTHER AND CUT OFF A DIPLOMAT'S PINKY WAKE UP GODDAMMIT

IF YOU LEAVE ANOTHER MAN ON BASE YOU'LL WISH THAT ALL I WAS DOING WAS STRANGLING YOU!!!!!

Being legitimately shut down by opposing pitching because your lineup simply does not have weapons...frustrating? Sure, but at least understandable because the talent isn't there.

A very talented lineup that three months into the season still consistently leaves men on base and can never deliver big hits when they need them to the point that you really wonder if it's just bad luck...frustrating? No, frustrating isn't the word. Infuriating? Closer. Disgraceful? Yes. Pathetic? Yes.

I know some fans expect wins and playoff berths. And with the Yankees at 44-39 for the season, they are still in a pretty good position to grab a playoff spot, which I of course would be happy with. I understand that. But personally, most importantly I want to see good baseball, win or lose...preferably win obviously, but if they lost playing the way they should, I'm not mad. Leaving 12 men on base every goddamn game and supposed future batting title winners and former near batting title winners just absolutely sucking wind...not good baseball. I'd rather watch a sub-.500 team that, while they will lose more often than not, they will at least not look dead from the neck up doing it. The frustration of being a fan of a team like that is not as bad as the frustration of watching this team. Let me try and explain why I feel this way using 2 examples.

1. I swim for a team that's pretty much at the bottom of the league. Sure, it's kind of frustrating that we suck, but everybody performs to the level at which they are capable of. Our best isn't good enough to beat all of these other teams. It sucks, but I'm fine with it. You lose with no excuses. This team continues to underperform and they don't play their best often enough.

2. You're a good looking guy. You're in great shape. You're smart, book smart and street smart. You're a nice guy. You have all of these characteristics, and while you definitely strive for better, the only girls you get together with are the likes of the Penguin (inside joke, for those of you who don't get it, let's just say a hideous girl). At least if you're a hideous guy yourself, the Penguin is the best you can do. But when you should be reeling in supermodels, and instead you reel in Jenny Quarter Pounder, isn't that kind of bad?


Who knows, maybe I should just lower my expectations for this team. Then I won't be as pissed...HA! (Hey...HA...that's a good idea! Maybe we'll score runs THAT way!)