Red Sox due for Second Half Decline?

A 12 game deficit is big, but it’s been done before, and we saw earlier this season that a 14 game lead can be cut in half in just 2 weeks. And here are several reasons why (some might be wishful thinking to some extent, but I will not base my guesses on pure hope), in no particular order:

1. Mike Lowell never hits well in the second half. Every year he sucks after the All-Star break. 2006, 2005 (well, not relative to his first half, he just sucked that whole year), 2004, 2003…
2. Kevin Youkilis despite slugging .368 in June is STILL way above his PrOPS and is likely to continue regressing
3. I think Manny may finally be on the decline. He’s had bad starts before, but he’s never had the numbers he has this year at the All-Star break. He’ll finish with 28-30 HR, but that’s certainly sub-par for Manny. And it’s not like he’s been unlucky – his PrOPS is .879, and is currently at .862, a fairly insignificant difference. And let’s not forget, he’s 35. Not unusual to begin running out of gas at that age.
4. Dustin Pedroia is also way above his PrOPS. He’s pretty good, but he’s not a .320/.400/.450 hitter. Just by watching him you can tell he’s not THIS good. While he has a good eye, his swing is a long, ugly warhack and will get eaten alive by good pitching. I see him as more of a .280/.360/.400 kind of guy whose deviations will likely be slightly upward due to hitting in Fenway.
5. Maybe David Ortiz should have kept drinking those protein shakes that those sneaky Domincans in the GNC “might have” been filling with steroids. Or maybe he was smart to not take them because he realized 50+ homers don’t merit possible death after that irregular heartbeat last year. But whatever is going on, his power has been way down this year. THREE home runs in Fenway this year. 13 overall. And he also has been lucky, his PrOPS has him at .897 (it had him at almost 1.100 last year and 1.034 in 2005) and he’s currently at .970. Normally guys like him are below their PrOPS (like he has been the past couple years) because they’re slow, hit the ball hard a lot, have the shift on them, etc. unlike guys like Jeter who are usually above their PrOPS because they’re fast and have good bat control. Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn probably would have had low PrOPS numbers (can’t look it up, numbers only go back to 2004). Back to Ortiz, he can’t hit lefties this year (0 HR, .326 SLG!!!), unless of course you bring in Mike Myers, who I would demote to sidearming bags of Cracker Jack as a vender if I had any authority. So, expect Big Floppy to start dropping.
6. Josh Beckett will decline, if he manages to avoid another blister, and has already begun to. His ERA has been climbing since his start against the Yankees. It’s up to 3.44. Fuck him and his stupid Win total. And let’s look at his last several starts. Against teams with pretty good offenses, like the Yankees, the Rockies, the Rangers, and even the Devil Rays who aren’t half-bad, he’s allowed 18 ER in 22.1 innings for 7.25 ERA and a WHIP of 1.881. Now, I don’t think he’ll get totally bombed, but I bet he has a 4.50 ERA, a lot more 5-6 inning, 3-4 run outings and fewer 7-8 inning, 1 run outings in the second half.
7. Papelbon is vulnerable to lefties and to his own shoulder crapping out like it did last year. His BAA lefties is lower than righties, but lefties for the most part seem to have better results. Going back to last year, Dioner Navarro homered off him. Giambi has hit him hard a couple times (long sac fly last year, long double to rightcenter this year). Travis Buck took him deep earlier this year. Abreu hit a 400+ ft flyout to center to end a game against him in April. Ramon Vasquez flew out to deep rightcenter against him. Carlos Peña (who also, I didn’t mention him in my All-Star post, but I will here, is more deserving of starting at 1B in the All-Star game than Ortiz is, .289/.389/.603 with 19 HR and he DOESN’T hit in Fenway…and, oh yeah, he actually IS a first baseman) homered off him the other night. He’s not invincible. And as I also mentioned, he could crap out again like he did last year around the 50-55 inning mark or so.

All of this stuff might not happen, just because this baseball season sucks and nothing seems to want to go right. However, the numbers show that there is reason to hope that things for the Red Sox begin to go into a downward spiral. Keep your fingers crossed.