I think we should start a new blog: Fire Mike Francesa

I listen to the show for a few minutes in the hopes that maybe he'll say something stupid thinking that he's smart, and he does. In response to a caller talking about how he doesn't think the Mets are underperforming, he goes:

You don't think the Mets are underperforming? Beltran? He's not having a bad year? Chavez has been out for 2 months. Delgado? You don't think he's underperforming? Alou? He missed two months.

And I of course cannot convey to you in writing the pretentiousness amplitude of his voice's sound waves that physicists have yet to determine a way to measure. Then the caller said something that made me smile:

I think Beltran is one of the most overrated players to ever come to New York.

And of course Francesa brings up last year and his year in 2004 (including his absurd HR output in the playoffs that year). But, has Francesa ever realized, maybe that is Beltran overperforming? Overall, if you look at the Mets last year, they had so much go right, offensively.

Carlos Beltran: .275/.388/.594, 156 OPS+, 41 HR
Carlos Delgado: .265/.361/.548, 134 OPS+, 38 HR
Jose Reyes: .300/.354/.487, 118 OPS+, 19 HR
David Wright: .311/.381/.531, 136 OPS+, 27 HR
Jose Valentin: .271/.330/.490, 112 OPS+, 18 HR
Paul Lo Duca: .318/.355/.428, 105 OPS+, 5 HR (but 39 2Bs)

Beltran had a career year. Valentin gave much more than expected. Delgado declined slightly, but wasn't too far off from his career norms. And the guy was 34. It was reasonable to hope but not expect him to repeat his 2005 in Florida (by the way, stupid but fun trivia question: Delgado is one of only 4 players to hit .300 with 30 HR and 100 RBI in both leagues, who are the other three? I remember 2 of the other 3 as I write this). Even Lo Duca gave them above average offense as a catcher. Now look at them this year:

Carlos Beltran: .260/.336/.490, 118 OPS+, 21 HR
Carlos Delgado: .254/.331/.438, 104 OPS+, 18 HR
Jose Reyes: .303/.373/.453, 120 OPS+, 9 HR
David Wright: .309/.398/.523, 144 OPS+, 22 HR
Jose Valentin: .241/.302/.373, 80 OPS+, 3 HR, 51 games played
Paul Lo Duca: .267/.310/.355, 78 OPS+, 5 HR and just 13 2Bs

Reyes is doing what you'd expect. Power down, but walk rate up, which is what you want. The last thing on his mind should be 20 HR. Wright is doing exactly what you'd expect, as well. Beltran is giving you about what his career norms are, also. Last year was the exception, not the rule. Delgado is 35 years old and obviously declining. I've seen him get blown away by so many fastballs this year just to give you some anecdotal evidence. Valentin came back down to earth and hurt himself on the landing. Lo Duca's too tired and banged up from failed rape attempts on 14 year old girls to provide above average offense anymore. And please, try to understand this people...ENDY CHAVEZ IS A FUCKING FOURTH OUTFIELDER. One great catch does not elevate him above that status. Quite frankly, the numbers he'd put up offensively would, in reality, not be much more valuable than Shawn Green's output, and all Mets fans hate Shawn Green. He'd play better defense, but that's it. And Moises Alou, come on, he's 40 years old and hasn't played a full season since 2004. He's obviously still a good player, but, his missing 2 months...is this an absolute freakish thing that nobody expected to happen?

PECOTA's prediction for the Mets this year was a little pessimistic (86-76, .529), but then again it made sense for PECOTA to not expect Oliver Perez and John Maine (though he's been coming back down to earth lately) to pitch as well as they have. Perez showed in 2004 that he was capable of this, but the guy's been very inconsistent ever since. Maine has never pitched a full season, but he has fairly decent stuff and pitched fairly well in his circa 100 IP last year. But even with that, the Mets are 67-52 (.563), with their Pythagorean win/loss at 65-54 (.546). So, factor in the overachieving of Maine and Perez, and there you have it. The Mets are actually slightly overachieving according to PECOTA. The way I see it, this is the Mets showing their true colors. They were clearly not as good as the 97 wins they posted last year.

The point is, does Francesa do any sort of research? You can't just look at what a guy did in one or even two seasons and expect that's what he normally does every year. He relies solely on what he sees or wants to see or wants to think. And he probably thinks that the Doctrine of Infallibility should not be limited to the Pope on dogmatic teaching. The Mets are not underperforming, fatass. The Mets are simply putting up a record more indicative of how good they really are.