Ambivalence

Hard to say how I feel about yesterday. Mussina pitched great, again. Mariano blows his first save of the year, although it didn't really feel like it was his first blown game of the year. He's been off the charts awesome this year, but that sucked...badly. And Girardi, stop overusing Damaso Marte. He's good but I personally don't think he's better than Veras or Edwar.

If I have to listen to Suzyn Waldman and John Sterling babble incessantly about the importance of "ABC" ball I will kill someone. Yesterday, the Twins pick up 2 cheap runs on a single, a bloop double and 2 sac flies. Next thing you hear is, "That's how they do it! They play ABC ball so well! The Yankees don't do that. That's why they're struggling so much and leaving so many men on base."

Now, I'm furious with the Yankees and their inability to ever get runners home. And have expressed it rather irrationally before. However, while it's partially their fault, a LOT of it is due to bad luck. Hitting w/RISP better than how you hit overall is not a repeatable skill. Just take a look:

NYY team batting

2002
w/RISP: .289/.385/.478, 60 HR
overall: .275/.354/.455, 223 HR
Better

2003
w/RISP: .263/.364/.430, 54 HR
overall: .271/.356/.453, 230 HR
Worse

2004
w/RISP: .272/.369/.454, 55 HR
overall: .268/.353/.458, 242 HR
Same

2005
w/RISP: .272/.360/.458, 67 HR
overall: .276/.355/.450, 229 HR
Same

2006
w/RISP: .286/.386/.479, 67 HR
overall: .285/.363/.461, 210 HR
Better

2007
w/RISP: .293/.378/.451, 49 HR
overall: .290/.366/.463, 201 HR
Same

2008
w/RISP: .259/.348/.382, 22 HR
overall: .272/.344/.425, 125 HR
A lot worse

As far as all of MLB goes:

2007
w/RISP: .272/.357/.423
overall: .268/.336/.423

2008
w/RISP: .265/.354/.411
overall: .263/.332/.414

You basically hit the same with runners on as you do with nobody on. OBP is always higher with RISP but that is not a function of offensive ability. In MLB this year, there have been 925 IBBs handed out w/RISP and 1 with nobody on. There's the difference. But batting and slugging averages are virtually the same all over the league w/RISP and overall. The Yankees, while definitely struggling, have also been really unlucky this year. However...

MIN team batting
w/RISP: .313/.387/.461, 23 HR
overall: .276/.335/.408, 84 HR

Yeah, their success is all due to "ABC" ball. It has nothing to do with the fact that they've been extremely lucky and are hitting way over their heads with RISP. John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman aren't very good at broadcasting, and probably aren't good at anything. Except maybe this...

Speaking of that...

LAA team batting (2008)
w/RISP: .293/.371/.441, 28 HR
overall: .266/.328/.409, 116 HR

as opposed to 2007

w/RISP: .284/.355/.397, 24 HR
overall: .284/.345/.417, 123 HR

Annnnnnd...

Joe Saunders
IP: 152.2
ERA: 3.07

and yet...

xFIP: 4.70
BABIP: .248
K/9 IP: 4.48
GB/FB: 1.25

The Angels have already won 9 more games than their run differential would indicate they should have. Add in the fact that they've also been very lucky w/RISP and that Joe Saunders who fucking sucks is pitching like he's an ace (seriously, he and Matsuzaka are the biggest jokes ever this year) and you have a largely unimpressive team. They have the lowest line drive percentage of any team in the AL as well. As I said the other day, I HATE watching Angels' games. It's the like the seeing-eye single and bloop double derby.

Seriously, God hates the Yankees. Not only have they not hit w/RISP, but:

Chien-Ming Wang: tears tendon in foot RUNNING THE BASES, gone for season
Phil Hughes: fractured rib, gone for most of season
Joba Chamberlain: begins emerging as dominant starter and then...shoulder tendinitis
Alex Rodriguez: hurt for a few weeks, and after last year's unbelievable, off-the-charts performance with runners on base and in close & late situations, he can't do anything in them this year (though he homered last night, which was pretty sick)
Jorge Posada: hurt for most of season and failed to outdo my 65 year old father on the radar gun
Hideki Matsui: hurt for a lot of season, had been one of best hitters, especially with runners on (who cares if it's luck, at this point I'd rather be lucky than good)
Johnny Damon: hurt for a while, had also been one of best hitters, league leading hitter going into today, of course it had to happen on a Kevin Pukelis flyball. Man do I loathe that guy...
Robinson Cano: PrBA and PrOPS virtually same this year versus last year (.296/.764 vs. .283/.770) but hitting .264 with .698 OPS versus last year's .306 with .841 OPS. Granted, he hasn't been knocking the cover off the ball for the whole season. He was hitting like a girl for the better part of the first half, but over the last month or two he's been vicitmized by a lot of at-him balls and I wonder if this is starting to get into his head. His defense is faltering and he's been making some bonehead plays. He might just need a day or two on the bench.
Andy Pettitte: better K/9 IP and BB/9 IP than last year, same LD%, higher GB% yet just 13 GIDPs in 156.1 IP versus 34 in 215.1 IP last year and a higher ERA than last year

NOTE #1: I didn't include Jeter in there because he has legitimately been sucking and it's mostly his fault. Even if he is hurt, he should take a few days off and let Betemit play short. Betemit is a middle infielder and, unlike Jeter, is a threat to hit it out of the ballpark, so you don't lose much offensively.

There's still time, but anecdotally and statistically, very little has gone the Yankees' way this year. And yet they are STILL in the Wild Card race, somehow. Come on, God. Seriously, can you at least let the Yankees have NORMAL LUCK?! They haven't been hitting all that well to start with (just look at the offensive drop from last year, BA around .270, OPS well under .800), but you're going to also make sure all of their hits come with nobody on base?! That's just cruel and unusual punishment.

NOTE #2: I am not blaming the Yankees's season solely on luck, I am just saying that it certainly hasn't been on their side to go along with their mediocrity. It's infuriating, but I don't think you can berate the team for not hitting with runners on when there is no conclusive evidence to show that "clutch" hitting is an ability. And when you are a hitter like Cano, you're bound to have a year like this because you're very much a "feel" hitter (a lot of moving parts, don't walk much, make a lot of contact) and your value is so tied up in BA. He'll probably finish around .280 with .750 OPS this year, but he'll hit .340 with .920 OPS another year. His true talent probably lies somewhere around .310/.850 like last year. And injuries happen to everybody, no doubt. As a GM, you need to be prepared for that. But there's NO way the Yankees haven't been unlucky when it comes to health this year. Wang rounding the bases? Damon crashing into the wall? Hughes a cracked rib? Give me a break.

I hate this baseball season.