Why Derek Jeter will probably not break out of this slump

You keep reading everywhere, even on here recently, about how the Yankees are going to have a good second half offensively because guys like Jeter, Cano, and Cabrera are likely to improve. Well, Melky combined with bad luck and a bad approach is not improving, which is frustrating as hell. He's capable of being a lot better than this. Cano, aside from those 2 at bats against lefties getting owned on LOOGY crap, has improved. Regardless of whether he gets hits or not (3 for his last 17), he's hitting the ball hard a couple times each night (20.2% LD) and has flown out to the track in death valley or center a couple times in those 17 at bats. Jeter's performance, on the other hand, is just absolutely depressing. First, I will describe how bad he looks to the naked eye, then I will back up my observations with the relevent metrics.

Jeter is hitting like he's Placido Polanco. Poke it, inside out it, slap it, drag the wrists, hit nothing hard, instead of driving the shit out of 2-0 count meatballs, you try to take them right back up the middle and end up grounding into a double play most of the time with the occasional RBI single. He needs to watch video of himself from 1998-1999. He didn't used to poke at everything. He took real swings, kept his weight back and it still yielded a .320+ average but with much more power. He's always been a groundball/line drive type hitter but when he hit the ball in the air, it was usually hit pretty well and a lot of them would go out. Now, not so much. Balls off the bat that look good just die because of his failure to get all of his weight behind each swing. His approach this year and even in 2006 is definitely different from what it used to be. You didn't mind the past 2 seasons because in 2006 he was the true AL MVP and last year he hit .322 with an .840 OPS. Now it's just not acceptable. And particularly this year, he's hitting not to strike out, it seems. Whatever you think you're doing Derek, it's not working.

Derek Jeter LD% (2004-2007)
19.6%, 19.1%, 22.3%, 19.9%
2008
16.6%

Derek Jeter HR/FB % (2004-2007)
12.1%, 16.8%, 14.7%, 9.1%
2008
6.9%

So, as you can see, the statistics back up everything I and probably most people see when watching Derek Jeter hit. He doesn't hit the ball hard --> LD% decrease. Balls that look good off his bat just die --> HR/FB% decrease last year and again this year.

He takes a good hack every now and then giving me hope that he'll start doing it more frequently and then he goes right back to being the GIDP pokemeister. He needs to go back to his 1998-1999 style. Sure, maybe the average drops a little, but even if it did, I'd rather he hit .275 with 20+ HR and as a result, walk more because pitchers won't want to make mistakes to him then hit .285-.290 with a barely .400 SLG.

Baltimore games are a close second in terms of infuriating opponents

Kevin Millar
vs. NYY, 2004-present, discounting sac flies and HBPs, because including them would just lower or boost his OBP a few insignificant points
.324/.401/.566
88 for 272
35 BB
13 2B/1 3B/17 HR

overall, since 2004
.269/.356/.431
600 for 2227
133 2B/2 3B/74 HR
301 BB

That's annoying enough. But, take out his games against the Yankees...

.262/.350/.412
512 for 1955
120 2B/1 3B/57 HR
266 BB

So, against the Yankees, Kevin Millar is basically David Wright without being nearly as likeable and against the rest of the league he's even worse than the bottom-third-in-OPS-by-AL-first-basemen type of hitter that he already is.

Surprisingly, Brian Roberts' splits are not nearly as lopsided as I thought they would be. He just had that one insane season in which he OPS'd 1.400 against the Yankees in 2005, so anytime he gets a hit or steals a base, I just can't help but think of that season during which he owned the Yankees. Aside from that aberration, he's been the same player. Maybe he decided to hate the Yankees in 2005 and made a deal with the devil to kill them, but then when the Yankees broke his arm he decided he'd be better not try pissing the Yankees off again.

And oh yeah, this guy...

Ramon Hernandez
overall, career
.262/.326/.423
1001 for 3814
198 2B/6 3B/134 HR
322 BB

vs. NYY
.332/.404/.556
80 for 241
16 2B/1 3B/12 HR
25 BB

I think he's due for a Brian Roberts-esque Yankee Stadium lesson. Maybe A-Rod can knock a few balls into monument park and knock Ramon Hernandez into the upper deck on a play at the plate tonight. And then say, "HA!"

Come on, guys. Get back on a winning streak! AND PLEASE STOP LOSING THE GODDAMN BALTIMORE ORIOLES!!!!!!!

2 out of 3 ain't bad...

But I was 3 for 3, bitch. What did B.A. tell you?

On Friday, Beckett only gave up that 1 run (I expected him to allow more) but he did allow 10 baserunners in 7 innings, so you could chalk it up to a little bit of luck. Joba on the other hand was just God.

On Saturday, the Yankees were nice enough to give Wakefield's ERA a lift back to his xFIP's neighborhood, like I'd hoped. Robby pwns.

On Sunday, Ponson got knocked around as expected. Lester pitched well, again...but losing last night didn't hurt at all. I saw it as a loss days ago. And this could be a good thing. Might mean Ian Kennedy gets another shot, now.

And now onto other things...

Mike Lupica:

If Mike Pelfrey had an unusual nickname, people might get as excited about the way he's pitching for the Mets as Yankee fans are about Joba.

I heard about this on Saturday, read a few other comments on it by more level-headed people, including the ENOUGH LUPICA! blog, but I figured I'd make mention of this.

Joba Chamberlain:

a. has an ERA+ of 180. He's 80% better than league average.
b. strikes out 10.69/9 IP.
c. throws a fastball that AVERAGES 95.2 mph, touches 98-100, to go along with a nasty slider and a pretty good curve (changeup is rarely thrown).
d. pitches in AL East, probably the best and toughest division in baseball.
e. is 22 years old!!!

Mike Pelfrey:

a. has an ERA+ of 112. He's 12% better than league average in an inferior league.
b. strikes out 5.36/9 IP and doesn't have a ridiculously high GB/FB ratio.
c. throws 93 mph on average.
d. is 24 and has been up and down between the majors and AAA for 2 seasons.

He's been good, especially lately, but come on. Mike Pelfrey in the AL East would probably be league average or worse.

What Mike Lupica SHOULD say is, "Think Joba's incredible in the AL? Imagine how good he would be if he pitched in Mike Pelfrey's slot."

And my GOD...was last night's ESPN broadcast one long makeout session with the Red Sox or what? Even the biggest Red Sox fan couldn't deny that after watching this game.

A deep drive by Jeter to left center (though it wouldn't have been deep anywhere else because most parks don't have 11 and 12 year old tournament league dimensions) that Ellsbury had to jump for (ungracefully) because he misjudged it and they're showing one replay after another. Now, Ellsbury's definitely made some awesome catches and he is a better outfielder than he looked on that play, but we don't need to see 3 replays of an unnecessarily adventurous catch.

Derek Jeter charging in on a weak grounder fields and whips to first in time, while sort of like apples and oranges, was clearly better since Jeter had no other way to play it, and all you hear is a "nice play by Jeter, there..." out of Jon Miller's bacon fat loving mouth under his breath, basically.

And then with the Red Sox already up 5 runs, they pick up two more runs on a sac fly and an RBI single by Big Floppy and Manny "I beat up 70 year old secretaries, I'm so tough" Ramirez respectively and Steve Phillips is praising them with, "You know, this is just great baseball by the Boston Red Sox." I am tempted...VERY tempted...to start a blog dedicated to just disemboweling Steve Phillips and his brilliance. But then again, it would take too much time to cover all the stupid things he says on a daily basis, and besides, is it really a challenge to own Steve Phillips?

ESPN. The Egregious Sox-loving Pricks Network.

Preview of Boston series

Friday night, Joba Chamberlain vs. Josh Beckett
Prediction: Yankees win

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Joba has been awesome, especially his last couple outings.

Joba Chamberlain (2008)
71.1 IP
2.54 ERA (163 ERA+)
1.304 WHIP
84 K/33 BB
3.24 xFIP

Now, going by his xFIP, he might be getting lucky and be due for a correction, but I'm not so sure that's going to happen. Last year AND this year, a strangely low percentage of the flyballs he has allowed have left the ballpark. Last year just 5.0% of his surrendered flyballs went out (screw you, Mike Lowell) and this year just 5.1% of his surrendered flyballs went out. It's just 95.1 IP, so he could be getting lucky because usually pitchers allow closer to 10% of their flyballs to go out, but just by watching him, he doesn't give up a whole lot of deep flyouts, so he could just be an exception. His stuff is hard to zero in on and mash, evidenced anecdotally and statistically by his 13.0% LD allowed and 84 Ks in 71.1 IP. Even if he throws one right down the middle, his average fastball of 95.2 mph is very hard to catch up with especially when you have to be on the lookout for that curve or slider he can drop in for a strike on you. And he's also keeping the ball on the ground effectively this year as 53.7% of balls put in play have been grounders.

Josh Beckett really isn't pitching that much worse this year than last year, it's just that the outcomes are more realistic this year. His newfound control (1.79 BB/9 IP last year in 200.2 IP, 1.88 BB/9 IP this year in 120.0 IP) I am now convinced is not a fluke. Last year I was skeptical, but he's been doing it for the last 320.2 innings so I have to assume that's a new skill he has acquired. He is also striking guys out at virtually the same rate (8.70 K/9 IP last year, 8.48 K/9 IP this year). His batted ball rates are slightly different this year, though, as he's giving up fewer grounders and more line drives this year (47.3% GB/15.8% LD last year and 39.8% GB/21.9% LD this year). So he's clearly more hittable this year than last year, but he's still been good. The biggest difference in my opinion is the FB/HR percentage. Last year a strangely low percentage of Beckett's surrendered flyballs for him went out (8.0%), which I do NOT believe was skill. For his career, he has a 10.4% HR/FB rate and this year it's 11.3%, which is more in line with his career norms.

In his last outing against the Yankees, he got into trouble in the first inning, allowing 3 runs on a 2 run rip double by A-Rod and a sac fly from Giambi. Later in the game, Giambi nearly missed putting up another 2 runs on the board with a bomb but it just hooked foul. Beckett lasted just 6 innings and this was when the Yankees were the WOE. Jeter and Cano are now hot.

I see Cano putting either a Beckett fastball into the monster seats or a hanging curve into the bleachers and Jeter ripping a few doubles to rightcenter tonight. I think the Yankees will win this game. That's B.A. Nostradamus talking.

Saturday night, Andy Pettitte vs. Tim Wakefield
Prediction: Yankees win

I also see the Yankees winning this game. Pettitte wasn't great in his last outing against the Red Sox and he wasn't helped by Jeter's defense or the gods of bloop hits. All of that combines for a bad performance. It is very unlikely to happen again this time, as Pettitte last year seemed to show a trend of good start/bad start vs. the Red Sox, which is kind of how his stuff was last year. This year, his stuff has been very good (3.51 xFIP, 6.77 K/9 IP, 1.29 WHIP) so I doubt that Pettitte's stuff will be absent a second time in a row against the Red Sox.

Wakefield's been pitching way over his head so far this year and I see the Yankees fixing his ERA. His ERA is a fluky 3.69 right now while his xFIP is 4.97. He tends to be under his xFIP but never by 1.28 runs. If his xFIP is 4.97, his ERA should be more like 4.40. xFIP must be lonely because his friend ERA is so far out of town. Maybe the Yankees can do him a solid and bring ERA back to xFIP's neighborhood.

Sunday night, Sidney Ponson vs. Jon Lester
Prediction: Red Sox win

Yikes...

Ponson's been very serviceable and been able to successfully keep the ball on the ground, but with his 8938734.97 WHIP, I am not all that confident that he will be able to hold down the Red Sox lineup especially in Fenway. If he goes 5-6 IP and allows 4-5 runs, I'll be satisfied.

Lester has been much better than I thought he would be. Now, this is the first real full season he's had, so we'll see if he can keep this up. But this does not appear to be a case of luck so far. His xFIP is 4.10, which is certainly a lot higher than his 3.20 ERA, but he has also tended to be a little bit under that every year. So while he's not 3.20 ERA good right now, he's probably 3.80-3.90 good. Hopefully the Yankees don't absolutely suck against him again.

So yeah, these predictions will probably be wrong, but whatever. I predict performance based on relevent stats and observations so I will proudly stick by my picks.

BREAKING NEWS: There is hope for normality in Boston!!!!! (well, not really, but at least normality has some representation)

I love you, Kevin Cullen.

The Yankees are in town for a weekend series, and this would be a nice time to retire the stupidest chant in the world: Yankees suck.

Boston fan? Wants people to stop saying, "Yankees suck"? Huh?

Now, before you go all Hank Steinbrenner on me, hear me out.

I don't like the Yankees. I never did, though as a kid I liked the way Bobby Murcer played the outfield, and for some odd reason I always wanted Horace Clarke to do well.

But I am a Red Sox fan, have been all my life, and so that means I don't like the Yankees. My two sons don't like the Yankees either.

Fair enough. No problem with that.

But here's the critical difference: I respect the Yankees, and I've taught my sons to do so, too. They are 14 and 11, love baseball, and know that Derek Jeter plays the game as well and as hard as anyone has. If I were picking sides in the schoolyard, Jeter is the guy I'd pick first.

If you watch him in the on-deck circle at Fenway, Jeter turns and talks to the kids. He's one of the few players who seem to comprehend how lucky he is to be playing a game and making millions doing it. He's class, all the way, and he's the Yankees captain, epitomizes them as a team, and the hell with the Boss, this is Jeter's team.

He has to be on drugs. I cannot believe a Red Sox fan is capable of writing this and presenting it as his own. Jack, if you're not busy, this guy might need to be brought into protective CTU custody.

So when you say the Yankees suck, you're saying Derek Jeter sucks, which is preposterous.

Damn right.

But, really, beyond being crude and moronic, the phrase "Yankees suck" is simply outdated. Its origins are from a bygone era, when we all knew deep down in our hearts that no matter how far ahead the Red Sox might have been in August, no matter the score and inning of a game in October, the Yankees were going to win. And there was nothing we could do about it.

The way it ought to be.

But that's over. It's been over since October 2004, when "Yankees suck" should have been put out to pasture. Shouting "Yankees suck" at Fenway Park today is like yelling "No Taxation Without Representation!" at Faneuil Hall.

Whatever you think of "Yankees suck," it used to mean something, but now it doesn't. It is mindless, as those who chant it often are. I was at Game 7 of the Celtics-Hawks playoff series, and when it became apparent that the C's would win, some in the crowd started chanting "Yankees suck."

"Dad," my oldest asked, "why are they saying that at a Celtics game?"

"Because," I replied, "they're too stupid to think up anything else."

*choirs of angels singing*

Thank you, God. There is hope for Boston yet. I hope that this man temporarily becomes a Mormon, marries 60 women, has 12 kids with each one, and each kid marries 60 different people, and each couple has another 12 kids...all of whom are raised in this same environment to not be morons.

Then there will be a legitimate army to combat the douchebags that comprise so much of the present Boston and Massachusetts population.

Now, sit back, and think long and hard for a moment. Have you ever said "Yankees suck"? Think of the people you have seen or heard saying this over the years. My experience has been that most people who shout "Yankees suck" are either drunk, obnoxious, or stupid and very often a combination of all three. They are an embarrassment to the rest of us, and their chant makes us look like a bunch of local yokels.

I know this will fall on deaf ears, and "Yankees suck" will be sung lustily all weekend in the bleachers and grandstand, then on Brookline Avenue as guys who have already had too much to drink mosey down to Kenmore Square, looking for more booze or a fight.

But if in this day and age you continue to yell "Yankees suck," it says a lot more about you than the team you think you're insulting.

Excellent article, my friend. Nobody can better speak the truth than one who lives among them and roots for the same team.

Hey, I'm not innocent of the opposite, though it's not the same to chant "Boston sucks!" because while it definitely implies the Red Sox, I see it as sort of a general statement about Boston itself, its obnoxious citizens, and their inferiority to New York.

And in a way, I sort of disagree with Cullen. If I were a Red Sox fan, I would chant "Yankees suck!" for fun, when appropriate of course (if the Red Sox are up by 10 runs or if the Yankees are arguing with an umpire, certainly not at a goddamn Celtics game) fully knowing that they don't suck. On the other hand, Cullen probably knows that people like that don't exist. The morons who chant it do think the Yankees suck. Derek Jeter could be hitting .350 with a .440 OBP, he sucks. A-Rod could be OPS'ing 150 pts higher than Ortiz, he's still not as good as Big Papi, or Manny. And Papelbon is so much better than Mariano, even though Mariano's WHIP and ERA are way lower. Idiots.

Thank you, Kevin Cullen. It's people like you that Boston needs a lot more of.

This shit makes me happy to be wrong

Mike Mussina is in better shape this year and his fastball is hitting 88-90, which is enough for him to put up 180 innings or so of about an average ERA.

That is what I said back in March.

Mike Mussina
13-6 (and it'd be better if the WOE hadn't been disguising as the NY Yankees during a few of his starts)
121.1 IP
3.26 ERA (126 ERA+)
1.212 WHIP
81 K/16 BB

Fluke? I think not...

3.57 xFIP

That stat is key right there. Showing he's not getting lucky and that he truly is pitching well.

And in his last 10 starts:

68 IP
2.25 ERA
1.09 WHIP
52 K/7 BB

With the luck the Yankees had trotting out Cracked Ribs and Bad Pitch Selection, Mike Mussina has practically made up for losing one of them.

God among men. I just hope he can continue this.

Colonel Decker, just capture me, you'd probably make better company during a Yankees game than my dad

My dad once again babbling about Bobby Abreu.

You look at Bobby Abreu, and you wouldn't think he's so fast...

Yes, I know. You've only told me this about 5 times in the last week or two. Anytime I repeat myself too often, which I unfortunately do from time to time, I blame you for forcing it upon me.

He's not bad defensively, either!

I believe you mentioned that before as well. And no, he's not good defensively. He's saved 17 runs fewer than average. That's 1.7 wins he's cost us defensively.

He's been great! (to which I respond by saying he's OK, and that he's actually slightly below average offensively for a right fielder, to which he responds) I have a hard time believing that.

Bobby Abreu
.277/.349/.443

I'm too lazy to add up at bats, plate appearances, hits, total bases, walks, sacrifices, etc. to calculate the correct averages, but since every qualified right fielder has at minimum 360 plate appearances, I'm going to just add up the averages and get a mean approximation for right fielders.

Rough average for right fielder
.281/.351/.467

So Abreu is a few pts below in batting average (negligible), a few points below in OBA (also negligible), and slugging average is a decent chunk below. He's certainly not terrible offensively, but he is a little below average right now. Not to say he will be for the rest of the season, but as of now, he is. Why is it so hard to understand this? Oh wait, I'm forgetting to account for something...

You have to factor for playing in New York, you know? There are so many people who have played elsewhere and put up great numbers, and then they come to New York and they suck! That's why sometimes it's better when you have homegrown guys, they develop in New York. You have guys like Brian Doyle, they rise to the occasion. Some people can take it. Others can't. It's really hard. It's easy to show off your skills in the middle of Ohio someplace, but a lot harder at Yankee Stadium in front of 57,000 people.

Yes, that's right. If you add in the ichNYcIhnb (I can't handle NY cuz I have no balls) factor, Bobby Abreu is just as good as Jermaine Dye.

At this point it's taking every ounce of my energy not to scream, "My GOD, are you an idiot?!" And you were a math major for crying out loud. Why is all your analysis based in platitudes and not in stats?! It probably is true that there were some people that weren't cut out to play in New York. You know what? What you said might very well be true, but you can't just say shit that sounds stupid without some sort of evidence to corroborate your theory. Aren't you a lawyer, too? This is the kind of crap I expect out of someone who wasted his or her parents' $100,000+ to study poetry or art or women's gender studies. Oh no, you're still not done...

Just look at Jose Contreras! He sucked for the Yankees. He goes to the White Sox and he wins a World Series. Then he comes back to Yankee Stadium and they kicked his ass!

*Insert Dr. Cox and Westminster Chime* WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONNNNNNNNNG....WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONNNNNNNNNG!!!! YER WRONNNG! YER WRONNNG! YER WRONNNG!

Jose Contreras
(career)
4.57 ERA
1.36 WHIP
6.54 K/9 IP
3.23 BB/9 IP
(vs. Yankees)
4.20 ERA
1.24 WHIP
6 K/9 IP
2.2 BB/9 IP

He has actually pitched BETTER than his career norms against the Yankees with the exception of strikeouts, and he is all of 3 strikeouts off his career rate for that many innings pitched. Not that this is a significant departure from his usual numbers especially considering the 45 inning sample size, but for God's sake. Do you EVER say anything without being sure that it's correct or reasonable first?

Capture me, cripple me, kill me...or just lift the blackout restrictions on MLB.tv so I can watch the games on my computer. Please?