Sunday, May 18, 2008

I want this baseball season to fucking die, and while we're at it, throw Joel Sherman in there

This season better turn around soon. I am so fucking sick of everything that just continues to go wrong. And it gets worse when I see pointless, moronic drivel like this.

The Yanks felt confident in those choices (not trading for Santana), believing Pettitte was as close to a 15-win safety net as existed. He was the steady, high-end innings eater who was going to make it possible for Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to apprentice within a rotation.

Except here we are in May and Hughes is hurt, Kennedy is winless and Pettitte is at five weeks without a victory. Here is Pettitte less reliable than Darrell Rasner. Here is Pettitte losing a Subway Series showdown to a homer-prone Santana. Pettitte traditionally has improved as the season has gone along and that must be true this season. Or else how do the Yanks revive?

Yes, it's all Andy Pettitte's fault that he hasn't won a game since April 20th. He didn't pitch into the seventh inning on May 6th having allowed just 2 runs with a lead. David Delucci didn't cheat on a Joba fastball and hit a 336 foot 3 run pop up in the 8th inning. As far as those other starts go, fair enough. He didn't pitch well against Tampa Bay, Detroit, or Cleveland the other time he faced them.

But you want to attack him for yesterday's game?

Pettitte has been betrayed by the same difficulty each time: He opens well (five strikeouts of the first seven batters yesterday) and then blows up for an inning in mid-game.

He was not hit hard during the Mets' three-run, bat-around fourth - in fact, Santana was hit harder overall than Pettitte. But Pettitte couldn't find the big out, limit his pitch count (he threw 41 in that inning) or go deep enough to keep Kyle Farnsworth from all but assuring defeat by yielding two homers in the seventh.

He couldn't get the big out. I'm not sure that falls under the job description for pitchers. Let's look at what Wikipedia says about the object of pitching:

"In most cases, the object of a pitch is to deliver the ball to the catcher without allowing the batter to hit the ball. The ball is delivered in such a way that the batter either can't hit a pitch through the strike zone, hits the ball poorly (resulting in a pop fly or ground out), or is fooled into swinging at a pitch outside of the strike zone."

The pitcher's job is to either make the batter swing and miss, or "hit the ball poorly". So, understanding the objective of each pitch, let me paraphrase that last paragraph:

Andy Pettitte did his job during the Mets' three-run, bat-around fourth - in fact, Santana did not do his job as well as Pettitte. But a lot of the weakly hit balls Pettitte induced that inning dropped in front of outfielders or snuck through holes in the infield. That's his fault. Since Pettitte, essentially, had no luck, he was forced to throw a lot more pitches than he should have. And that is also his fault. Because of course, Andy Nostradamus Pettitte knew Kyle Farnsworth would come in and give up a solo and a 2-run home run. He also knew the Yankees hitters would not do their jobs, which is also his fault. Damn you, Andy. How dare you be toast after 6 innings because you did your job well with no luck?

Now, don't you feel like an idiot? Probably not, because you're a moron. Otherwise there wouldn't be a post about you on PWNAGE of Morons.

Santana has not pitched very well, yet is 5-2 and his history - like that of Pettitte - is to excel in the second half. His presence in Yankee Stadium as a winning pitcher, for the Mets, certainly provides Hank Steinbrenner more "told-you-so" ammunition.


Fuck the "told-you-so" crap. It's way too early for that. I don't care how Kennedy and Hughes have been pitching so far. It was still the right call not to trade away the package the Twins were demanding. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes both ripped through the minors and showed capability of success at the major league level. Remember Phil Hughes' September and postseason last year at age 21?

35.1 IP
24/10 K/BB
2.55 ERA
1.075 WHIP

Anyone remember Ian Kennedy's September last year?

19 IP
15 K/9 BB
1.89 ERA
1.158 WHIP

They are better pitchers than what they've shown so far this year. Part of Kennedy's problem (aside from nibbling too much and not throwing enough strikes) is probably the fact he's not throwing enough sliders. His average fastball's around 89 MPH and his changeup's about 80 MPH. That's not a huge difference. And those two pitches make up about 84% of his pitches. Last year he threw a lot more sliders and he was much more effective that way. Hughes's problem is similar. He's not throwing enough sliders and changeups. A 91 MPH fastball and a 72 MPH 12-to-6 curveball is a nice combo, but not when you do not supplement that duo with your slider and your changeup because it's easy to distinguish those two pitches.

"The decision (not to obtain Santana) for me is not short-term and it is not one vs. the other and it is not to be determined on May 17 or what the kids do vs. Santana by May 17," Cashman said.

But even in the long-term, the decision only will look worse if Pettitte doesn't get a whole lot better.

The long-term has nothing to do with Pettitte, you idiot. The proposed trade did not involve him. He had a player option which he essentially took (declined it first, but that was just to take more time in making his decision). The proposed trade involved Ian Kennedy and/or Phil Hughes. If Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy turn out to be flops, then yes it was a bad decision in both the short-term and the long-term not to trade one or both of them for Santana while their values were high. If they turn out to be as good as they appear they can be, then it was the right decision in the long-term. Pettitte does not enter the equation here.

I hate morons.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Melky!!!!!

I have said that I always thought he was capable of hitting around .300 with 20 homers and a decent eye, but I didn't think it'd be this soon! I know it's early, but this could very well continue. He's not showing signs of this being a fluke.

Melky Cabrera (2007)
.291/.359/.505
6 HR
19.5% LD (same as usual)
44.8% GB (about 5-7% lower than usual)
35.6% FB (5% up from last year)
4.0 P/PA (0.3 higher than the last two seasons)
14/12 K/BB

It makes sense. He's seeing more pitches per plate appearance than usual, so he's reacquired and improved upon the patience he showed in 2006. He got to 3 ball counts in 17% of his plate appearances last year and so far this year, he's done it in 22% of his plate appearances. The more patient a hitter you are, the more you'll be swinging at good pitches.

Cano really needs to pick up the pace here. With no A-Rod or Posada in the lineup for a couple weeks, Cano's bat becomes all the more important. He's actually been taking some better swings of late, but he still needs to get comfortable going to left field again. A lot of bad luck and his inability to hit the ball to left with authority helps explain the 200+ actual OPS drop from his PrOPS. I hope he starts heating up soon.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Well I've been sort of right so far

I never wound up finishing my projections for the whole team, being a fugitive's a bitch when it comes to finding leisure time. Anyway, let's take a look and see who I've been right or wrong on.

First Base: Jason Giambi
Projection:
130 G 550 PA 440 AB 120 H 25 2B 0 3B 33 HR 101 BB 12 HBP 105 K .273/.424/.555

So far:
21 G 83 PA 66 AB 11 H 3 2B 0 3B 5 HR 14 BB 2 HBP 11 K .167/.325/.439

I'm way off on batting average, but his BA/BIP is only .118, and even with the infield shift it will go up. I wish he'd just fucking lay down some bunts so they'll stop doing it. But otherwise, he's doing just about what I expected him to do. His OBA is .151 higher than his BA and I projected .158. His IsoP is .272 and I projected .282. So, with a little luck (and a little less stubbornness about laying down bunts) he'll close the absurd 254 pt gap between his OPS and PrOPS (1.019/.765).

Second Base: Robinson Cano
Projection:
155 G 670 PA 613 AB 199 H 40 2B 4 3B 23 HR 50 BB 7 HBP 73 K .325/.382/.515

So far:
27 G 106 PA 98 AB 15 H 3 2B 0 3B 1 HR 7 BB 1 HBP 12 K .153/.217/.214

Obviously, I'm way off so far except for his walk rate. I projected 7.5% and he's at 6.6% so far. His problem right now is a slow bat. In terms of batted balls, he's hitting line drives and groundballs at the rate you'd expect, but an overly high percentage of his flyballs have been infield flies (20.0%), which only back up the point that his bat's too slow. I'm not worried, though. This guy is simply a slow starter, literally and figuratively. Let's just hope the slow start is shorter than last year's.

Shortstop: Derek Jeter
Projected:
147 G 705 PA 626 AB 209 H 36 2B 2 3B 16 HR 64 BB 13 HBP 103 K .334/.407/.474

So far:
21 G 91 PA 86 AB 24 H 3 2B 2 3B 0 HR 2 BB 1 HBP 6 K .279/.300/.360

Hey, he's met his triples quota for the year! Jeter's also off to a slow start and isn't hitting any of my offensive projections so far, but it ain't time to press the panic button yet. However, he is putting up a very good ZR at short like I predicted he would (.846 with 9 plays OOZ). So let's hope his bat starts catching up with his glove.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez
Projected:
158 G 700 PA 592 AB 180 H 27 2B 0 3B 45 HR 91 BB 17 HBP 124 K .304/.411/.578

So far:
24 G 99 PA 91 AB 26 H 7 2B 0 3B 4 HR 6 BB 2 HBP 19 K .286/.343/.495

He's off to sort of a slow start, but overall not bad. He's not walking as much as I predicted yet but his strikeout rate's the same, and he's only slightly down on power from what I projected (.274 IsoP projected versus .209 actual). He'll climb back up.

Left Field: Johnny Damon
Projected:
145 G 620 PA 555 AB 158 H 31 2B 1 3B 14 HR 62 BB 3 HBP 78 K .285/.360/.420

So far:
26 G 110 PA 91 AB 25 H 9 2B 1 3B 3 HR 16 BB 0 HBP 16 K .275/.380/.495

Very solid so far. He's been hitting a lot more balls in the air than usual, so obviously don't expect that .220 IsoP to last. Generally, 45% of his batted balls are grounders and he's only been hitting 36.8% on the ground. I also don't expect him to keep walking as much as he is. Last year he walked a lot for the first couple months, then he started hitting his way on base a lot more in the second half. But I like what I've seen so far and I expect him to put up a fine offensive season.

Center Field: Melky Cabrera
Projected:
150 G 620 PA 561 AB 162 H 30 2B 6 3B 9 HR 55 BB 4 HBP 66 K .289/.356/.412

So far:
25 G 96 PA 83 AB 24 H 2 2B 0 3B 5 HR 10 BB 0 HBP 13 K .289/.358/.494

Pretty much right on except I did not see him having this kind of home run output. But then again, it's April. Home runs and their bunches.

Right Field: Bobby Abreu
Projected:
158 G 700 PA 609 AB 178 H 43 2B 2 3B 19 HR 91 BB 3 HBP 121 K .292/.387/.463

So far:
26 G 107 PA 100 AB 28 H 4 2B 1 3B 3 HR 7 BB 0 HBP 23 K .280/.327/.430

He's also right around what I'd expect. The walks are down so far, but he's still seeing 4.2 pitches/plate appearance, so the walks will start coming and his OBA will go up. The average and power are slightly down, but pretty much right around where I expect them to be.

Hopefully the guys who I'm off on revert to my predictions and those who are to continue on their present paths.

Hey, at least he's consistently inconsistent

Dustin Pedroia (home/away)
.365/.404/.558
.288/.338/.356

I love it.

By the way, this guy is a dead pull hitter. He opens up on everything. Throw him fastballs away and then own him Phil Hughes style with breaking balls in. Do that for a month, and even Fenway won't save this midget dipshit.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

A brilliant AIM conversation

B.A. Baracus: I had to put the game on mute several times.
B.A.'s friend: lol Joe Morgan get to you?
B.A. Baracus: Between Jon Miller, Joe Morgan, and Peter Gammons jerking AND sucking off the Red Sox incessantly, the Fenway morons chanting "Yankees suck!!!" after anything, and the chant of "YOUUUUUUUUK" after ANY play he's involved in...I wanted to steal an F-18 fighter jet, have the Yankees and whatever Yankees fans present evacuate Boston, distract the Red Sox and their fans by showing slow motion locker room shower scenes of Jonathan Papelbon Irish stepdancing with "Sweet Caroline" playing, and use Fenway as a testing facility for Scorpion missiles.

Just B.A. telling you how he feels.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Yahoo! Sports writers are a bunch of ignorant dipshits

Imbecility at its best.

All three are considered experts. All three predict the Yankees to miss the postseason. Let's just look at Steve Henson, because he basically says the same thing the other idiots say.

Steve Henson

AL East Predictions
Boston Red Sox 96-66
NY Yankees 92-70
Toronto Blue Jays 86-76
Tampa Bay Rays 72-90
Baltimore Orioles 70-92

Description: Late March adventures in the Tokyo Dome and the L.A. Coliseum might cause the Red Sox to start slow, but this is one of the best rosters in recent memory. Better than the Yankees, who are counting heavily on young pitchers and aging position players, and the Blue Jays, whose team doctor should be MVP if they win the division. The Rays are improving but are still middle-school level to the Red Sox graduate students.

Time for a player comparisons at each position:

First Base: Kevin Youkilis vs. Jason Giambi
Yeah...great, you masturbate to Youkilis' .390 OBA, but he has weak power for a first baseman and he's 29. He's not going to get any better. He'll probably go .290/.390/.450 again this year. Jason Giambi, however, is in a contract year and he came back in shape. The last time Giambi came back from a very injury-prone season was for 2005, and he racked up 32 HR and a league-leading .440 OBA. If Giambi can do anything like that, he'll be much more valuable than Kevin Youkilis offensively. A healthy Giambi can pass at first base. Youkilis has Giambi in that, but it won't make up the offensive difference. Edge: Yankees

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia vs. Robinson Cano
There's no debate in this. Robinson Cano can bomb a ball further the other way than Pedroia can pull a ball with a hurricane behind it. Not to mention, Cano is much less influenced by ballpark (.866 home OPS vs. .816 road OPS) than that lilliputian stumpy sack of feces (.912 home OPS vs. .729 road OPS). And defensively, Cano is one of the best in the league (.846 ZR) and Pedroia is alright (.833). Edge: Yankees

Shortstop: Julio Lugo vs. Derek Jeter
Jeter was awful defensively last year, exacerbated by a knee injury, but he worked a lot on agility this year and he looks much better ranging to his left this year. So expect Jeter to shut up his defensive critics this season with a solid ZR. Lugo's alright defensively (.822 ZR), but nothing fantastic. Offensively, there's no contest. Lugo's a career .273/.334/.395 hitter, Jeter's a career .317/.388/.462 hitter. Edge: Yankees

Third Base: Mike Lowell vs. Alex Rodriguez
Here's all I have to say: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA A-Rod in Yellowstone could outhit Mike Lowell in my backyard wiffle ball stadium. Edge: Yankees

Catcher: Jason Varitek vs. Jorge Posada
Even with Jorge Posada dropping off the way we all expect him to (probably to his typical career numbers of .277/.381/.479), he'll still be better than Varitek, whose 36 year old campaign has gotten off to a God-awful looking start. And please don't give me that shit about Varitek having these great intangibles that make the pitching staff better...Edge: Yankees

Left Field: Manny Ramirez vs. Johnny Damon
Looks like the Red Sox finally win a position. Manny Ramirez is 36 years old, and his days of .300+/.400+/.600+ are over, but he'll probably hit around what he did last year or a little better. Johnny Damon will probably hit around .285/.360/.420 like I predicted here
and Damon's defense isn't going to make up the difference. Edge: Red Sox

Center Field: Jacoby Ellsbury/Coco Crisp vs. Melky Cabrera
This is an interesting one. Jacoby Ellsbury is not Willie Mays like all of Red Sox Mastur-Bation thinks he is, but he'll be a serviceable centerfielder with a lot of speed. In AAA, he hit .298/.360/.380. He'll put up about a 1.5 K/BB ratio and hit for a solid average at the MLB-level, but he suffers from a big lack of power and overall, just doesn't hit the ball very hard when you watch him. Melky Cabrera's season didn't look all that great last year, but so far in his career, he's put up a 1.3 K/BB ratio, and over a 90 game stretch last year, boasted a line of .325/.372/.474 over a 90 game stretch from June through the beginning of September. I'm not naive enough to think he can put that up for a whole season (at least not yet), but I think Melky will put up the numbers I projected here. Overall, those hot streaks will get longer and those dry spells will shorten up. Edge: even

Right Field: JD Drew vs. Bobby Abreu
JD Drew will probably bounce back to some extent from last year. However, so will Bobby Abreu. Once he was healthy in June, he went .309/.396/.520 for the rest of the year. Overall, I think Abreu will be better than Drew, but I'll be generous and say it'll be pretty even. Edge: even

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz vs. Hideki Matsui
Don't need to do much analysis to figure out this one. Ortiz will outperform Matsui handily, but Matsui will still hit his 20-25 home runs and hit around .300/.370/.480. Edge: Red Sox

One of the best rosters in history? The Yankees have the Red Sox beat at all positions except Left Field and DH.

Ohhhh, right...that divine starting rotation and bullpen that can do no wrong...

Starting Rotation: Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz
vs. Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina, Ian Kennedy
Is the Red Sox rotation really astronomically better than the Yankees rotation? Beckett went on the Jon Miller/Billy Joel bacon fat-red wine combo diet in the offseason and anyone who thinks he's going to duplicate last year is out of their minds. Tim Wakefield? He is a league average pitcher at best. Jon Lester is going to be 1999 Andy Pettitte. Daisuke Matsuzaka is going to be Johan Santana against bad teams, Kei Igawa against good teams. Clay Buchholz, by all accounts, looks to be very good, but like Joba Chamberlain, is going to be limited in his pitches and innings this year.

Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte will both put up 400+ innings of 4.00 ERA or better. Phil Hughes is healthy and even with much less than his best stuff last year put up a league average ERA. Mike Mussina is in better shape this year and his fastball is hitting 88-90, which is enough for him to put up 180 innings or so of about an average ERA. Ian Kennedy had a great spring, showing good command of his fastball and changeup. His breaking ball needs some work, but over the course of the season he'll get it right. I think he's going to have a very good rookie year. I don't think you can honestly say after going through the rotation pitcher by pitcher that the Red Sox are better. Yankees have 2 shoo-ins for 400+ solid innings, some great upside in the 3 and 5 slots, and average pitching from the 4 slot. Edge: Yankees

Bullpen
This is where it's fair to say that the Red Sox might have an edge, but not by much. It was one outing, but Papsmear showed he really does not have much of an arsenal. All he does is throw fastballs and an occasional splitter. Everyone knows what's coming. He is going to start getting hit more this year. Okajima is solid, but he came back to earth in the second half, so expect to see numbers close to his 2nd half as opposed to his 1st. Delcarmen's not that great, and even if he does repeat last year, he's only going to pitch around 45 innings. Timlin's solid but he's old. Javier Lopez isn't that good. Kyle Snyder sucks.

Mariano Rivera is 38, but he'll still be the very good to excellent closer that he is. Joba Chamberlain in the set-up role, at least for the beginning of the season, is going to be great. Ross Ohlendorf has good stuff. Who knows what the Yankees will get out of Bruney, Farnsworth, etc. but overall, the Yankees bullpen will be passable. Edge: Red Sox/even

Best roster in recent memory? How can you possibly say that you fucking jerkoff? The entire Yankees infield is way better than the Red Sox, the Yankees rotation is better. You braindead schmucks probably get a little too excited from watching the post-game shower scenes from the Red Sox locker room last October. Stick to Pedroia's David Ortiz porn and your right hand instead of writing turds like this when you want to gratify yourself.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Thank God Joe Torre is gone

As you know from my posts from earlier in the season, I didn't like Torre as a manager. On the other hand, I love Joe Girardi. It feels good to have a manager who's intelligent.

Joe Torre is going to destroy the LA Dodgers this year. Let's prove it.

Who should be the starting left-fielder?

Choice #1
25 year old
.295/.357/.464
108 OPS+
.280 eqA

Choice #2
30 year old
.301/.348/.374
84 OPS+ (75 last year)
.256 eqA

Joe Torre: I like choice #2. No question. He's an old school type player, which I appreciate. He runs fast. He steals lots of bases. He's exciting, no question. He has experience. He does things the right way.
B.A.: So Juan Pierre's better than Andre Ethier?
Joe Torre: Yes.

B.A.: Man, are the Dodgers going to have some fun this year...and Scott Proctor's right arm will have to be amputated...
Joe Torre (brightly smiles): Scott Proctor's on my team???
B.A.: Oh God help us all...

Speaking of the bullpen, let's take a look at how well Torre has managed it from 2004 onward.

2004

Paul Quantrill - 86 appearances, 95.1 IP
EIGHTY SIX APPEARANCES. Jesus, I don't think even Jack took as bad a beating in China as Quantrill's arm did in Torre's bullpen.
Tom Gordon - 80 appearances, 89.2 IP
Two relievers with over 80 appearances. That's horrendous.

2005
Tom Gordon - 79 appearances, 80.2 IP
Hey, we're getting better!!!

2006
Scott Proctor - 83 appearances, 102.1 IP
Holy shitballs...

2007
Luis Vizcaino - 77 appearances, 75.1 IP
Scott Proctor (before Betemit trade) - 52 appearances, on pace for about 75-80 for full season

And this is just an indication of him overworking the bullpen...we could go all night talking about his timing and his bullpen choices.

Oh yeah...

Let's do another B.A. type analysis here. Who should be your starting third baseman?

Choice #1
24 year old
.295/.376/.525 in minors
.322/.400/.550 and .309/.399/.589 at AAA at ages 22-23

Choice #2
soon to be 35 year old
hasn't played over 120 games in 5 years
boasted an Ecksteinian .700 OPS last year
experienced

Joe Torre: Oh choice #2, no question. He's my third baseman. He's got experience. That's all that counts. He knows how to win. He plays the game the right way.
B.A.: So you like Nomar Garciappara as your starting third baseman as opposed to Andy LaRoche?

Joe Torre: No question. There's no question.

(Note: B.A. knows that LaRoche tore a ligament in his thumb and will be out until May. Torre was thinking this BEFORE the injury.)

Well, as far as Ned Colletti is concerned, I think there will be a question he'll be asking himself:

WHY AM I PAYING THIS MAN $13 MILLION OVER THE NEXT 3 YEARS?