I never wound up finishing my projections for the whole team, being a fugitive's a bitch when it comes to finding leisure time. Anyway, let's take a look and see who I've been right or wrong on.
First Base: Jason Giambi
Projection:
130 G 550 PA 440 AB 120 H 25 2B 0 3B 33 HR 101 BB 12 HBP 105 K .273/.424/.555
So far:
21 G 83 PA 66 AB 11 H 3 2B 0 3B 5 HR 14 BB 2 HBP 11 K .167/.325/.439
I'm way off on batting average, but his BA/BIP is only .118, and even with the infield shift it will go up. I wish he'd just fucking lay down some bunts so they'll stop doing it. But otherwise, he's doing just about what I expected him to do. His OBA is .151 higher than his BA and I projected .158. His IsoP is .272 and I projected .282. So, with a little luck (and a little less stubbornness about laying down bunts) he'll close the absurd 254 pt gap between his OPS and PrOPS (1.019/.765).
Second Base: Robinson Cano
Projection:
155 G 670 PA 613 AB 199 H 40 2B 4 3B 23 HR 50 BB 7 HBP 73 K .325/.382/.515
So far:
27 G 106 PA 98 AB 15 H 3 2B 0 3B 1 HR 7 BB 1 HBP 12 K .153/.217/.214
Obviously, I'm way off so far except for his walk rate. I projected 7.5% and he's at 6.6% so far. His problem right now is a slow bat. In terms of batted balls, he's hitting line drives and groundballs at the rate you'd expect, but an overly high percentage of his flyballs have been infield flies (20.0%), which only back up the point that his bat's too slow. I'm not worried, though. This guy is simply a slow starter, literally and figuratively. Let's just hope the slow start is shorter than last year's.
Shortstop: Derek Jeter
Projected:
147 G 705 PA 626 AB 209 H 36 2B 2 3B 16 HR 64 BB 13 HBP 103 K .334/.407/.474
So far:
21 G 91 PA 86 AB 24 H 3 2B 2 3B 0 HR 2 BB 1 HBP 6 K .279/.300/.360
Hey, he's met his triples quota for the year! Jeter's also off to a slow start and isn't hitting any of my offensive projections so far, but it ain't time to press the panic button yet. However, he is putting up a very good ZR at short like I predicted he would (.846 with 9 plays OOZ). So let's hope his bat starts catching up with his glove.
Third Base: Alex Rodriguez
Projected:
158 G 700 PA 592 AB 180 H 27 2B 0 3B 45 HR 91 BB 17 HBP 124 K .304/.411/.578
So far:
24 G 99 PA 91 AB 26 H 7 2B 0 3B 4 HR 6 BB 2 HBP 19 K .286/.343/.495
He's off to sort of a slow start, but overall not bad. He's not walking as much as I predicted yet but his strikeout rate's the same, and he's only slightly down on power from what I projected (.274 IsoP projected versus .209 actual). He'll climb back up.
Left Field: Johnny Damon
Projected:
145 G 620 PA 555 AB 158 H 31 2B 1 3B 14 HR 62 BB 3 HBP 78 K .285/.360/.420
So far:
26 G 110 PA 91 AB 25 H 9 2B 1 3B 3 HR 16 BB 0 HBP 16 K .275/.380/.495
Very solid so far. He's been hitting a lot more balls in the air than usual, so obviously don't expect that .220 IsoP to last. Generally, 45% of his batted balls are grounders and he's only been hitting 36.8% on the ground. I also don't expect him to keep walking as much as he is. Last year he walked a lot for the first couple months, then he started hitting his way on base a lot more in the second half. But I like what I've seen so far and I expect him to put up a fine offensive season.
Center Field: Melky Cabrera
Projected:
150 G 620 PA 561 AB 162 H 30 2B 6 3B 9 HR 55 BB 4 HBP 66 K .289/.356/.412
So far:
25 G 96 PA 83 AB 24 H 2 2B 0 3B 5 HR 10 BB 0 HBP 13 K .289/.358/.494
Pretty much right on except I did not see him having this kind of home run output. But then again, it's April. Home runs and their bunches.
Right Field: Bobby Abreu
Projected:
158 G 700 PA 609 AB 178 H 43 2B 2 3B 19 HR 91 BB 3 HBP 121 K .292/.387/.463
So far:
26 G 107 PA 100 AB 28 H 4 2B 1 3B 3 HR 7 BB 0 HBP 23 K .280/.327/.430
He's also right around what I'd expect. The walks are down so far, but he's still seeing 4.2 pitches/plate appearance, so the walks will start coming and his OBA will go up. The average and power are slightly down, but pretty much right around where I expect them to be.
Hopefully the guys who I'm off on revert to my predictions and those who are to continue on their present paths.
Showing posts with label b.a.'s projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label b.a.'s projections. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Friday, November 16, 2007
Some projections for the Yankees, Part 2
3B Alex Rodriguez
Couldn't believe it when I saw that he was coming back, but he's back. I was totally willing to let Betemit play third all year. But hey, a guy who hit 54 home runs wants to come back? At what we'd originally offered? And without his agent? Great. So anyway, here's what I expect from A-Rod.
158 G 700 PA 592 AB 180 H 27 2B 0 3B 45 HR 91 BB 17 HBP 124 K .304/.411/.578
I don't see as many home runs obviously. But essentially I see the same type of year.
LF Johnny Damon
This is going to be an interesting one. Damon, first off, has to show up at spring training in better shape than he was in last year. He was banged up all the time, had to DH, and with the way he was hitting in the first half we would have been better off letting Pettitte and Wang take a few hacks. But anyway, if he shows up healthier, here's what I see out of Damon.
145 G 620 PA 555 AB 158 H 31 2B 1 3B 14 HR 62 BB 3 HBP 78 K .285/.360/.420
Basically 2006 with much less power.
CF Melky Cabrera
This will also be interesting to see. Melky was having a very good year until September rolled around and he went into an awful, automatic out type slump. Let's take a stab at this one.
150 G 620 PA 561 AB 162 H 30 2B 6 3B 9 HR 55 BB 4 HBP 66 K .289/.356/.412
Pretty reasonable. Hopefully in his prime he can be the .300/.360/.450 with 12-15 homers type of guy he shows flashes of.
RF Bobby Abreu
Glad he's back. I knocked him early in the season for looking like he doesn't care, but in all fairness, he looks like that all the time. Really the only knock on him is his fear of the wall. Anyway, despite his awful first two months which may have been due to the oblique strain in spring training, he had a solid year, and from June onward he was very Abreu-esque. So, here goes.
158 G 700 PA 609 AB 178 H 43 2B 2 3B 19 HR 91 BB 3 HBP 121 K .292/.387/.463
Bill James predicts 110 walks. That's a little high. I see 85-90.
Posada, Matsui, and Duncan to come.
Couldn't believe it when I saw that he was coming back, but he's back. I was totally willing to let Betemit play third all year. But hey, a guy who hit 54 home runs wants to come back? At what we'd originally offered? And without his agent? Great. So anyway, here's what I expect from A-Rod.
158 G 700 PA 592 AB 180 H 27 2B 0 3B 45 HR 91 BB 17 HBP 124 K .304/.411/.578
I don't see as many home runs obviously. But essentially I see the same type of year.
LF Johnny Damon
This is going to be an interesting one. Damon, first off, has to show up at spring training in better shape than he was in last year. He was banged up all the time, had to DH, and with the way he was hitting in the first half we would have been better off letting Pettitte and Wang take a few hacks. But anyway, if he shows up healthier, here's what I see out of Damon.
145 G 620 PA 555 AB 158 H 31 2B 1 3B 14 HR 62 BB 3 HBP 78 K .285/.360/.420
Basically 2006 with much less power.
CF Melky Cabrera
This will also be interesting to see. Melky was having a very good year until September rolled around and he went into an awful, automatic out type slump. Let's take a stab at this one.
150 G 620 PA 561 AB 162 H 30 2B 6 3B 9 HR 55 BB 4 HBP 66 K .289/.356/.412
Pretty reasonable. Hopefully in his prime he can be the .300/.360/.450 with 12-15 homers type of guy he shows flashes of.
RF Bobby Abreu
Glad he's back. I knocked him early in the season for looking like he doesn't care, but in all fairness, he looks like that all the time. Really the only knock on him is his fear of the wall. Anyway, despite his awful first two months which may have been due to the oblique strain in spring training, he had a solid year, and from June onward he was very Abreu-esque. So, here goes.
158 G 700 PA 609 AB 178 H 43 2B 2 3B 19 HR 91 BB 3 HBP 121 K .292/.387/.463
Bill James predicts 110 walks. That's a little high. I see 85-90.
Posada, Matsui, and Duncan to come.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Some projections for the Yankees, Part 1
So apparently the Yankees have made offers of about $40 million over 3 years to both Posada and Rivera. Hope they take them. Pettitte hopefully decides to come back. He declined his option but that's simply because he wants more time to think over his future. For now, here's what I expect out of the New York Yankees lineup next year.
1B Jason Giambi
I think the Yankees need to get this through to Giambi: this is your walk year. There's a team option for 2009 but there's no guarantee that we will pick up your option. So lose weight, be ready to play first base, we need your bat more than ever this year. That should give him a lot of incentive to show up in great shape and healthy.
I intend on coming up with a projection system of my own when I get the chance, but I will take some well-informed guesses right now based on as much info as possible.
130 G 550 PA 440 AB 120 H 25 2B 0 3B 33 HR 101 BB 12 HBP 105 K .273/.424/.555
Here's where I came up with these projections. If he stayed healthy, he would get into pretty much every game against righties and would get only occasional starts against lefties (like Nate Robertson) as Shelley Duncan would likely get the nod against the lefties. So I figure that he would get into 130 games and get about 550 plate appearances should he stay healthy. Looking at his BA/BIP in 2005, when he was hitting well, it was .293. The past two years he's been about .250-.260. His line drive percentage was 16% the past 2 seasons, but I think that if healthy, he will hit more liners, probably putting him around 18%. So I made a quick and dirty guess that his BA/BIP would jump to about .280ish. His strikeout rate in 2006 was 23%, so I figured he would be right around that, maybe slightly less. His walk rate was down to 13% this year, but I think that if he's any bit effective next year, he will be pitched to more carefully and draw walks at about an 18% rate, a more Giambi-like percentage. In 2005, he homered once every 13 at bats. I think that he could do just about the same in 2008 under these assumed conditions. So, having figured out all of this, it became mere calculation to come up with the totals, aside from basically just guessing the number of doubles he would hit. So if he could put these kinds of numbers up in 2008, I would be pretty happy.
2B Robinson Cano
I was very happy with Cano's explosion in the second half, going .343/.396/.557 with 13 homers. I was especially happy with his 24 walks in 329 plate appearances. That was a much higher walk rate than either of his other two full seasons. He is arguably the best second baseman in the AL. Polanco's a good player, but he got a little bit lucky this year. Cano is better. And fuck Dustin Pedroia. He's a big turd in a midget's body. Fenway Park just helps cover up the smell. Anyway, assuming Kevin Long works with him to maintain/improve his second half plate discipline, here's what I can see him doing next year.
155 G 670 PA 613 AB 199 H 40 2B 4 3B 23 HR 50 BB 7 HBP 73 K .325/.382/.515
Basically, I think he can be like a 1998 Derek Jeter, just with a little more power and less speed. These projections were based largely on his second half from this past season. Being a young player, you have to look at the most recent data more than you do a veteran (not to say that it's not important for an aging vet). His walk percentage was about 7.5% in the second half, so it should stay about the same if not get a little bit better. Maybe even 8%. His K-rate was 11% in the second half, and historically he hasn't struck out much. So I think it'll remain around the same, at about 12 or 13%. In the second half, he homered once every 22 at bats. For the season, he homered once every 32 at bats. I think that he'll be somewhere in between, leaning slightly towards the once per 22 at bats end. Say about once every 25 at bats. His BA/BIP in the second half was a beastly .354, which you cannot expect to last. Overall for the year it was .331. My guess is that it can be around .340 seeing as how his walking a little more will keep him from putting more weakly hit balls in play. He always hits a ton of doubles, so 40 is reasonable. His 7 triples this year was an anomaly, so my guess is he'll hit more like 3 or 4 next season. So overall, this is what I see happening for Cano.
SS Derek Jeter
Hard to believe but Derek Jeter is getting old. He is turning 34 next season. How will he respond to his tools diminishing over the next few years? They already have started to drop. His power has been declining, he appears to be losing a step, his range at short continues to shrink. However, I do think that he will be determined to put up a big season this year because the loss of A-Rod makes the Yankees lineup hard-pressed to compensate. So, here's what I think he can do next year realistically.
147 G 705 PA 626 AB 209 H 36 2B 2 3B 16 HR 64 BB 13 HBP 103 K .334/.407/.474
Now, I think Jeter's chances of hitting these numbers are lower than Cano's to hit my predictions for him, but this is feasible. As of mid-August, he was still hitting in the .330s with an OBP around .400. I'd originally had Jeter hitting more home runs, but I've realized that he probably will not. If he has a good year next year, it will look like this or 2006.
I will predict the rest of the team very soon.
1B Jason Giambi
I think the Yankees need to get this through to Giambi: this is your walk year. There's a team option for 2009 but there's no guarantee that we will pick up your option. So lose weight, be ready to play first base, we need your bat more than ever this year. That should give him a lot of incentive to show up in great shape and healthy.
I intend on coming up with a projection system of my own when I get the chance, but I will take some well-informed guesses right now based on as much info as possible.
130 G 550 PA 440 AB 120 H 25 2B 0 3B 33 HR 101 BB 12 HBP 105 K .273/.424/.555
Here's where I came up with these projections. If he stayed healthy, he would get into pretty much every game against righties and would get only occasional starts against lefties (like Nate Robertson) as Shelley Duncan would likely get the nod against the lefties. So I figure that he would get into 130 games and get about 550 plate appearances should he stay healthy. Looking at his BA/BIP in 2005, when he was hitting well, it was .293. The past two years he's been about .250-.260. His line drive percentage was 16% the past 2 seasons, but I think that if healthy, he will hit more liners, probably putting him around 18%. So I made a quick and dirty guess that his BA/BIP would jump to about .280ish. His strikeout rate in 2006 was 23%, so I figured he would be right around that, maybe slightly less. His walk rate was down to 13% this year, but I think that if he's any bit effective next year, he will be pitched to more carefully and draw walks at about an 18% rate, a more Giambi-like percentage. In 2005, he homered once every 13 at bats. I think that he could do just about the same in 2008 under these assumed conditions. So, having figured out all of this, it became mere calculation to come up with the totals, aside from basically just guessing the number of doubles he would hit. So if he could put these kinds of numbers up in 2008, I would be pretty happy.
2B Robinson Cano
I was very happy with Cano's explosion in the second half, going .343/.396/.557 with 13 homers. I was especially happy with his 24 walks in 329 plate appearances. That was a much higher walk rate than either of his other two full seasons. He is arguably the best second baseman in the AL. Polanco's a good player, but he got a little bit lucky this year. Cano is better. And fuck Dustin Pedroia. He's a big turd in a midget's body. Fenway Park just helps cover up the smell. Anyway, assuming Kevin Long works with him to maintain/improve his second half plate discipline, here's what I can see him doing next year.
155 G 670 PA 613 AB 199 H 40 2B 4 3B 23 HR 50 BB 7 HBP 73 K .325/.382/.515
Basically, I think he can be like a 1998 Derek Jeter, just with a little more power and less speed. These projections were based largely on his second half from this past season. Being a young player, you have to look at the most recent data more than you do a veteran (not to say that it's not important for an aging vet). His walk percentage was about 7.5% in the second half, so it should stay about the same if not get a little bit better. Maybe even 8%. His K-rate was 11% in the second half, and historically he hasn't struck out much. So I think it'll remain around the same, at about 12 or 13%. In the second half, he homered once every 22 at bats. For the season, he homered once every 32 at bats. I think that he'll be somewhere in between, leaning slightly towards the once per 22 at bats end. Say about once every 25 at bats. His BA/BIP in the second half was a beastly .354, which you cannot expect to last. Overall for the year it was .331. My guess is that it can be around .340 seeing as how his walking a little more will keep him from putting more weakly hit balls in play. He always hits a ton of doubles, so 40 is reasonable. His 7 triples this year was an anomaly, so my guess is he'll hit more like 3 or 4 next season. So overall, this is what I see happening for Cano.
SS Derek Jeter
Hard to believe but Derek Jeter is getting old. He is turning 34 next season. How will he respond to his tools diminishing over the next few years? They already have started to drop. His power has been declining, he appears to be losing a step, his range at short continues to shrink. However, I do think that he will be determined to put up a big season this year because the loss of A-Rod makes the Yankees lineup hard-pressed to compensate. So, here's what I think he can do next year realistically.
147 G 705 PA 626 AB 209 H 36 2B 2 3B 16 HR 64 BB 13 HBP 103 K .334/.407/.474
Now, I think Jeter's chances of hitting these numbers are lower than Cano's to hit my predictions for him, but this is feasible. As of mid-August, he was still hitting in the .330s with an OBP around .400. I'd originally had Jeter hitting more home runs, but I've realized that he probably will not. If he has a good year next year, it will look like this or 2006.
I will predict the rest of the team very soon.
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