Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Well I've been sort of right so far

I never wound up finishing my projections for the whole team, being a fugitive's a bitch when it comes to finding leisure time. Anyway, let's take a look and see who I've been right or wrong on.

First Base: Jason Giambi
130 G 550 PA 440 AB 120 H 25 2B 0 3B 33 HR 101 BB 12 HBP 105 K .273/.424/.555

So far:
21 G 83 PA 66 AB 11 H 3 2B 0 3B 5 HR 14 BB 2 HBP 11 K .167/.325/.439

I'm way off on batting average, but his BA/BIP is only .118, and even with the infield shift it will go up. I wish he'd just fucking lay down some bunts so they'll stop doing it. But otherwise, he's doing just about what I expected him to do. His OBA is .151 higher than his BA and I projected .158. His IsoP is .272 and I projected .282. So, with a little luck (and a little less stubbornness about laying down bunts) he'll close the absurd 254 pt gap between his OPS and PrOPS (1.019/.765).

Second Base: Robinson Cano
155 G 670 PA 613 AB 199 H 40 2B 4 3B 23 HR 50 BB 7 HBP 73 K .325/.382/.515

So far:
27 G 106 PA 98 AB 15 H 3 2B 0 3B 1 HR 7 BB 1 HBP 12 K .153/.217/.214

Obviously, I'm way off so far except for his walk rate. I projected 7.5% and he's at 6.6% so far. His problem right now is a slow bat. In terms of batted balls, he's hitting line drives and groundballs at the rate you'd expect, but an overly high percentage of his flyballs have been infield flies (20.0%), which only back up the point that his bat's too slow. I'm not worried, though. This guy is simply a slow starter, literally and figuratively. Let's just hope the slow start is shorter than last year's.

Shortstop: Derek Jeter
147 G 705 PA 626 AB 209 H 36 2B 2 3B 16 HR 64 BB 13 HBP 103 K .334/.407/.474

So far:
21 G 91 PA 86 AB 24 H 3 2B 2 3B 0 HR 2 BB 1 HBP 6 K .279/.300/.360

Hey, he's met his triples quota for the year! Jeter's also off to a slow start and isn't hitting any of my offensive projections so far, but it ain't time to press the panic button yet. However, he is putting up a very good ZR at short like I predicted he would (.846 with 9 plays OOZ). So let's hope his bat starts catching up with his glove.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez
158 G 700 PA 592 AB 180 H 27 2B 0 3B 45 HR 91 BB 17 HBP 124 K .304/.411/.578

So far:
24 G 99 PA 91 AB 26 H 7 2B 0 3B 4 HR 6 BB 2 HBP 19 K .286/.343/.495

He's off to sort of a slow start, but overall not bad. He's not walking as much as I predicted yet but his strikeout rate's the same, and he's only slightly down on power from what I projected (.274 IsoP projected versus .209 actual). He'll climb back up.

Left Field: Johnny Damon
145 G 620 PA 555 AB 158 H 31 2B 1 3B 14 HR 62 BB 3 HBP 78 K .285/.360/.420

So far:
26 G 110 PA 91 AB 25 H 9 2B 1 3B 3 HR 16 BB 0 HBP 16 K .275/.380/.495

Very solid so far. He's been hitting a lot more balls in the air than usual, so obviously don't expect that .220 IsoP to last. Generally, 45% of his batted balls are grounders and he's only been hitting 36.8% on the ground. I also don't expect him to keep walking as much as he is. Last year he walked a lot for the first couple months, then he started hitting his way on base a lot more in the second half. But I like what I've seen so far and I expect him to put up a fine offensive season.

Center Field: Melky Cabrera
150 G 620 PA 561 AB 162 H 30 2B 6 3B 9 HR 55 BB 4 HBP 66 K .289/.356/.412

So far:
25 G 96 PA 83 AB 24 H 2 2B 0 3B 5 HR 10 BB 0 HBP 13 K .289/.358/.494

Pretty much right on except I did not see him having this kind of home run output. But then again, it's April. Home runs and their bunches.

Right Field: Bobby Abreu
158 G 700 PA 609 AB 178 H 43 2B 2 3B 19 HR 91 BB 3 HBP 121 K .292/.387/.463

So far:
26 G 107 PA 100 AB 28 H 4 2B 1 3B 3 HR 7 BB 0 HBP 23 K .280/.327/.430

He's also right around what I'd expect. The walks are down so far, but he's still seeing 4.2 pitches/plate appearance, so the walks will start coming and his OBA will go up. The average and power are slightly down, but pretty much right around where I expect them to be.

Hopefully the guys who I'm off on revert to my predictions and those who are to continue on their present paths.

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