Saturday, November 17, 2007

What I would do with the New York Mets

This franchise is in a bit of a mess here right now. Stuck with a bunch of vets past their primes. Since it's fun to fool around with a team you have no emotional ties to, here's what I would do in an attempt to fix the New York Mets.

STARTING PITCHING
Problems are numerous in this area. Glavine was the only Met to get to 200 innings pitched this year. Oliver Perez and John Maine were pretty effective, but these guys are not front of the rotation pitchers. And Maine having never thrown a full season caught up to him in the second half. They're going to need to replace Glavine. And you cannot expect El Duque to keep getting people out. He's older than Fidel Castro. So here's what I do.

1. Sign Carlos Silva.
He's not great. Hard to say how well he'll do because he pitches to contact, isn't a big groundball pitcher, so he has a small margin for error. However, he's 29, will pitch around 200 innings and won't walk people. He gives up home runs, but at Shea you can knock down the number of gopher balls he'll give up. He usually gives up 20-25, so making half of his starts at Shea that could go down to about 15-20.

2. Trade for Cliff Lee if the deal is reasonable.
He still has some upside, and the Indians are apparently thinking of shipping him off. Lee going to the Yankees was a possibility but it would be at a high cost considering the fact that the Yankees are contenders. It's not the same situation for the Mets. They might get him cheap. If possible, try to trade Ruben Gotay (to play second base platoon with Cabrera, which could work well seeing as they are both switch hitters who have different natural sides) and Carlos Gomez (who they might see as a better option than 41 year old Kenny Lofton). If they want more, then fuck that.

So now the Mets rotation is:
SP Oliver Perez
SP Carlos Silva
SP John Maine
SP Pedro Martinez
SP Cliff Lee

Not great, but it'll do for now as the Mets can try to make a pitch for Santana in the 2008-2009 offseason. There really is no clear cut number one starter here, but of all of them, I'd put Perez one because he's the best of this group. Silva will pitch a good number of innings and they will likely be pretty effective, so he'll fill the two slot. Maine is a number 3 starter anyway, so this should be a good role for him. Pedro Martinez will probably be one of the best #4 starters in baseball. He's a six inning pitcher at this stage in his career, maybe get seven innings out of him if he has an extra day or two rest. Every once in a while you can have Duque start in his scheduled spot to give him that extra time. With Lee in the #5 slot, you don't have a whole lot to lose, and a fair amount to gain. If he sucks, put him in the bullpen and give Pelfrey another shot.

BULLPEN
This was a pretty big cause for concern this year. So here's what I do.

1. Sign David Riske
He's always been fairly reliable and just about anything is better than Guillermo Mota.

2. Sign Scott Linebrink
Another solid bullpen vet. Sign both Linebrink and Riske, then Heilman becomes expendable.

SECOND BASE
I would sign Tadahito Iguchi. Nevermind David Eckstein. Eckstein's been getting hurt a fair amount the past couple seasons and he would have to switch positions, not to mention Eckstein plain and simply just doesn't help the Mets. Iguchi has enough power to hit around 14-17 homers. He can hit around .275-.280 and OBP about .350, which is pretty solid. Defensively, he's not Robinson Cano or Aaron Hill, but he's decent. Try him for like 3 years, $15. AT THE ABSOLUTE MOST, $24 million. If he wants more than $8 million a year, then just re-sign Castillo. Castillo's defense is lesser and he has a good deal less power, but he can hit around .300 and OBP .370-.375. If the Mets re-sign Castillo, then I'd bat him leadoff and stick Reyes in the 2-slot.

FIRST BASE
Stuck with Carlos Delgado for now. He's turning 36 next year, and his prime's obviously behind him. However, you can still expect 25 homers out of him. There really isn't anything available aside from a trade for Mark Teixeira, and frankly the Mets don't have anything they can give up for him, especially considering the fact that as division rivals, the Braves would demand a lot.

CATCHER
Torrealba was the Mets' target, but that deal went into the toilet. Not necessarily the worst thing in the world, he's terrible. There's nothing out there now that Posada's back where he belongs. Since just about anything other than Barajas is better than Lo Duca, the Mets could try to work out a deal with Michael Barrett. I know, not great, but there's nothing else out there, unless you want Rod Barajas's career .288 OBP. Barrett's had several years of hitting 16 homers (and not simply due to Wrigley, he has legit power). He's been bad throwing runners out the past two seasons and overall for his career he's about 23% successful, but Lo Duca wasn't exactly much better this past season, and Barrett's going to provide a good deal more on offense than Lo Duca would. You could also give Lieberthal a chance, too if you'd like.

RIGHT FIELD
Decline Shawn Green's option. Just let Milledge play right field for now. I hate the guy, but he's put up solid minor league numbers at a young age, and he had a decent run with this Mets this year (.786 OPS). He'll do what Shawn Green could or probably better, and Green would cost about 20 times as much. Save the money, then when Pedro's contract's up at the end of the year, there'll be a good amount of money for the Mets to try and land Santana. The Yankees now have A-Rod back for the $275 million deal, so the Yankees might be less willing to spill another ton of money into signing Santana, especially if the Wang-Hughes-Kennedy-Chamberlain rotation turns out well.

So there's my attempt at fixing the New York Mets up a little bit. My main goal for the Mets here is to try and stay somewhat competitive while shredding some salary. Dump Shawn Green, sign either Iguchi or Castillo who are both pretty good players and hopefully won't cost too much, sign Barrett or Lieberthal for a short-term deal (Lieberthal might be more likely for a short deal), sign Silva (a pretty good AL starter who will probably be very good in the NL), trade for Cliff Lee (since you're not really giving up anything important), sign Riske and Linebrink to pitch in the bullpen, etc. I think this will keep the team somewhat competitive. Also, you don't make any retarded long-term signings and fuck yourself anymore. If you decline Green's option, there's $10 million freed up. After 2008, you're done with Pedro and Delgado (around $30 million). That's $40 million free in a year you can try to sign Santana. They might not be able to, which is not the end of the world, because they still have $40 million to play with. After 2009, you're done with Wagner (another $11 million). There's a lot of money to play with now. Plus, after 2008, you can try to trade Milledge (and hell, maybe even Reyes too) for some better pitching. Right now, the Mets should be looking to sign guys to deals no longer than 3 years and they should not be big name, high salary types. Then, you ride out the rest of these dead weight contracts to free up money. Then, SPEND IT WISELY for once.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Some projections for the Yankees, Part 2

3B Alex Rodriguez
Couldn't believe it when I saw that he was coming back, but he's back. I was totally willing to let Betemit play third all year. But hey, a guy who hit 54 home runs wants to come back? At what we'd originally offered? And without his agent? Great. So anyway, here's what I expect from A-Rod.

158 G 700 PA 592 AB 180 H 27 2B 0 3B 45 HR 91 BB 17 HBP 124 K .304/.411/.578

I don't see as many home runs obviously. But essentially I see the same type of year.

LF Johnny Damon
This is going to be an interesting one. Damon, first off, has to show up at spring training in better shape than he was in last year. He was banged up all the time, had to DH, and with the way he was hitting in the first half we would have been better off letting Pettitte and Wang take a few hacks. But anyway, if he shows up healthier, here's what I see out of Damon.

145 G 620 PA 555 AB 158 H 31 2B 1 3B 14 HR 62 BB 3 HBP 78 K .285/.360/.420

Basically 2006 with much less power.

CF Melky Cabrera
This will also be interesting to see. Melky was having a very good year until September rolled around and he went into an awful, automatic out type slump. Let's take a stab at this one.

150 G 620 PA 561 AB 162 H 30 2B 6 3B 9 HR 55 BB 4 HBP 66 K .289/.356/.412

Pretty reasonable. Hopefully in his prime he can be the .300/.360/.450 with 12-15 homers type of guy he shows flashes of.

RF Bobby Abreu
Glad he's back. I knocked him early in the season for looking like he doesn't care, but in all fairness, he looks like that all the time. Really the only knock on him is his fear of the wall. Anyway, despite his awful first two months which may have been due to the oblique strain in spring training, he had a solid year, and from June onward he was very Abreu-esque. So, here goes.

158 G 700 PA 609 AB 178 H 43 2B 2 3B 19 HR 91 BB 3 HBP 121 K .292/.387/.463

Bill James predicts 110 walks. That's a little high. I see 85-90.

Posada, Matsui, and Duncan to come.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

OK seriously, Boston fans need to be shot

Red Sox fans are such fucking pieces of shit. They're not Red Sox fans. They're Yankee haters. Their enjoyment of sports is based purely on jealous, vindictive hate. Anyway, this waste of an internet page written by people whose "mothers we wish had had medical plans that included abortion" (words of the great George Carlin), links an article talking about how NEW YORK fans are classy because a Red Sox fan got assaulted in Yonkers after Angels-Red Sox ALDS Game 1. Of course, when you read the article, you find out that the two assailants were from PENNSYLVANIA and that they were only in NY for a construction job. Way to leave out important information you fucking New England smegma-devouring piece of shit.

Oh yeah, and Red Sox fans are certainly ones to talk about being classy. They don't derisively chant the opposing pitcher's name every single fucking time he gets into a jam. They don't start victory riots that kill girls because police had to fire a pellet gun. They don't throw bottles at cops and force the police to arrest almost 40 of them. No, they're classy, classy people. They also are very knowledgeable of the team and the game. They know their shortstop in 2004 was Nomahhhh. And Manny was always on the Red Sox, right? So was Schilling. Kevin Millar still plays first base, right?

And the players are very classy, too. They don't engage in excessive celebration. They don't show up the pitcher. They don't shoot their mouths off like little bitches.

I am willing to bet that most of these bandwagon faggots have no idea who their second baseman was last year. Mark Loretta?! Who the hell is that???!!! And Edgar Renteria?! WHO??!! Orlando Cabrera? Those guys were never Red Sox! Oh yeah, and Jeter swallows!!!! GAY-ROD!!! GAY-ROD!!! Yankees suck! Yankees suck!

That is about as intelligent as you'll see these Sox fans get. And while they like to talk about the Yankees being gay, Pedroia (who jumped into Big Floppy's arms and looked like he was ready to be humped) and Papsmear (who did Irish stepdancing in his fucking underwear on the middle of the baseball field) on the other hand are totally cool and awesome dudes. Let me see if I get this straight. Jeter, who bangs hot women like Jessica Biel and Jordana Brewster, is gay. A-Rod, who's married with a daughter, is gay. But Pedroia who goes for a cockride on David Ortiz after hitting a fence-scraping home run, and Papelbon who does Riverdance in his underwear, skin-tight underwear at that, in the middle of a baseball field, are awesome and amazing. OK, I just wanted to make sure I understand who's gay and why.

I don't think I'll ever be able to express in one post, or hell, in any finite number of posts, my hatred for the Boston Red Sox and their fans. So just expect these to keep coming every time I come across more of these third rate products of broken condoms.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

A Steph in the Right Direction

How fitting that the above title was used in a New York Post article when the Knicks traded for Stephon Marbury in January 2004. Now, I'm using that same title for a different purpose. If you haven't heard yet, Isiah Thomas named Mardy Collins the starting point guard for tonight's game against the Phoenix Suns, prompting Stephon to bolt Phoenix and head home in what looks like the beginning of the end of the Marbury era.

No, I'm not making this up by the way....

How could anyone make this up?

To be fair to Steph, most of the blame is unfairly being put on him. He has been playing poorly, but so has Jamal Crawford, Eddy Curry, and Quentin Richardson. Of course, Mr. Starbury isn't making things much easier by not showing up to practice and most likely missing tonight's game. A class act would go to the game and play hard off the bench to try to get that starting job back.

While Steph has been a great person off the court (try finding a player in the NBA who has done more recently than he has), he isn't exactly the type of person you would call classy. After all, his pickup line for a Knicks intern was "are you going to get in the truck?"

This was the right move for Isiah to make though. This team needs a PG that will play defense and do a good job of feeding the other scorers which Stephon can't do consistently. Can Mardy Collins become that player? Its too early to tell but it looks like he does have the defense part down already.

Well, with that said, I will be the first to say goodbye Steph. You weren't the player we thought you were going to be for this franchise but at least you made it entertaining with your famous interviews (damn you YouTube for taking those classics down).

Today it was Stephon. Could Isiah be the next one? God I hope so.

Tune it tomorrow for another episode of "As the Knicks Turn."

Monday, November 12, 2007

The Choke Artists

No, the title above is not for a new show premiering on Fox tonight, but it is the perfect description of our New York Knickerbockers. After the Knicks dropped an embarrassing 75-72 decision to Pat Riley's Miami Heat (who happened to be without Wade), Knick fans around the world are starting to realize like Chicken Little did that the sky is indeed falling.

Before I really get into this post, I just want to say that I will not tolerate anyone who says "its ok that we lost because we were without Zach Randolph." NO! No more excuses. Even without Zach, who couldn't attack (thanks to Mr. Clyde Frazier for getting that stuck in my head), this Knicks team had to win last night if they wanted to at least show a possibility of differentiating themselves from last season's team. However, they were handed the keys to the car and they proceeded to drive the car right off the fucking cliff (one of the few times you will hear Jack Bauer curse in a post, bookmark this).

Words cannot truly explain this team's futility right now to make the plays that are needed to close out games. Stephon Marbury still can't execute when the game is on the line. Jamal Crawford still can't be a consistent player for the Knicks. Eddy Curry still can't play defense. The list goes on and on..

Yes, after only 4 games I started to wonder why the hell David Lee was only getting 23 minutes a game. Last night, I got my wish as Lee was the starting PF since Zach was in Indiana to attend his grandmother's funeral (obviously this wasn't the way I wanted Lee to get his minutes). David did not disappoint with 14 points and 14 rebounds despite a bad shooting night. Here's the thing about Lee, even if he gets off to a bad start in a game or has a bad shooting night overall, as long as he gets 30 minutes or more, he will essentially always give you a double-double. He is not a guy that needs 15 shots to be effective but he will still find ways to make an impact on the game like he did last night.

That is precisely why my good friends, Isiah should either get Lee 30 minutes a game or just trade him while his value is still sky high. As much as I like David Lee, it makes no sense to keep him on the roster if you only intend on playing him less than 25 minutes per game. Is giving Lee more minutes going to solve all of the problems? Hell no. However, giving some of Curry's minutes to Lee will make this team better, guaranteed. Lee and Randolph make for our most productive frontcourt by far. Unlike Curry, both of them rebound and both of them put at least a little bit of effort on the defensive end.

In my opinion, the biggest problem this team has right now though is the poor guard play. Stephon can still be an offensive weapon but his defense (which was surprisingly average last season) has been absolutely terrible so far as evidenced by 100 year old Penny Hardaway blowing past him at one point last night. Crawford has also been bad on the defensive end and while his offense can be spectacular on some nights, it is way too inconsistent for a team that aspires to start him while hoping to be a very good team at the same time.

To be fair, we don't have anyone on the bench that is any better. Nate is hurt right now so he really can't be counted on (as soon as he is 100% again though, I will be demanding that he gets more minutes). Mardy Collins is a good defensive point guard but his offense can be a big liability right now. Plus, the kid really needs to learn how to shoot free throws. Fred Jones is also a good defensive guard but like Mardy, he doesn't give you anything on the offensive end. I still can't fathom why we cut a rookie like Demetris Nichols to keep Jones on this roster. Excuse me, I think I'm going to go throw up right now....

Actually, when you think of it, that could be the motto for the Knicks this season.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Trade Rumors

Here's my opinion on some of the possible trades for the Yankees:

Apparently one rumor was posted a while back on MLB Trade Rumors saying that a possible package of Wang, Melky, and Ian Kennedy for Johan Santana. In addition, it said the Yankees would pursue Aaron Rowand heavily. I have a real problem with a deal like this. Here's my projection for Chien-Ming Wang next season:

215 IP 1.321 WHIP 3.64 ERA (87 ER allowed)

This was based on a lot of calculation involving singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, and hit batsmen allowed (along with their run values) while factoring in double plays induced. Basically I used base runs to determine a score rate off Wang multiplied by the base runners allowed and home runs allowed. It's a pretty damned good formula. It gave Wang a 4.03 expected ERA this year and a 3.99 expected ERA in 2006. Then multiply this expected number by a factor of 0.91, because each year his ERA was 0.91 times his expected. This gave me 87 ER allowed for an ERA of 3.64, pretty reasonable to expect of him. Let's look at Ian Kennedy's minor league totals:

149 IP 0.97 WHIP 1.87 ERA
165 K

That's pretty damned good. The Yankees kept him down in the minors longer than Joba because a guy like him who doesn't throw 98-101 mph is not going to be as convincing as a guy who does. And well, he basically was just as good. Here were Joba's numbers:

88.1 IP 1.01 WHIP 2.45 ERA
135 K

Aside from Joba's insane K/9 IP, Kennedy was actually better. And 165 K in 149 IP is not too shabby either. A lower ERA in a lot more innings and fewer baserunners allowed. This guy has the potential to be an excellent major league pitcher. However, not to assume he will meet his potential, let's say he's a league average starter, which was a 4.47 ERA in Yankee Stadium this year. Let's say he pitches 160 innings this year, too.

160 IP 1.40 WHIP 4.47 ERA

So he allows about 80 runs in those 160 innings. Wang allows 87 and Kennedy allows 80. So 375 IP and 167 ER. That's a 4.01 ERA. And for that, the Yankees pay about $1 million. Excellent, excellent deal. And this is assuming that Kennedy only pitches 160 innings and only at league average. He is very likely to be better than that. It could be as good as 390-400 innings at a sub-4.00 ERA. Giving that up, the Yankees will probably be getting about 215 IP of about 2.90-3.30 ERA (I'm not bothering to project his numbers, this is basically just a given). So that's about 70-80 runs allowed in 215 innings. To cover Kennedy's hypothetical league average performance over 160 innings, you'd need to rely on Mike Mussina or the DeSalvo/Clippard/Rasner crowd. I don't like an inconsistent starting rotation. One game is a sure win because Santana is pitching, another game is a likely loss because Mike Mussina and his Wakefieldian fastball, or one of our 4A pitchers is on the mound. Mussina could return to decent form. He could suck like he did for a lot of this year. He's 39 = more likely to suck.

Now, obviously, Johan Santana is an awesome, awesome pitcher. However, he is going to be commanding a huge amount of money post-2008. Baseball Prospectus has him worth around $22 million per year for 2009. And hell, seeing what guys like Jeff Suppan and Barry Zito get, he deserves it. But, do we really want to be dragged down by another enormous contract if we're going to give up important pieces of the team? Plus, Santana has a lot of mileage on his arm, and you never know, it may have affected him a little this year (33 HR allowed, 9 more than previous worst). Sure he'll be an upgrade over Wang, but it's at the loss of a top-notch prospect in Kennedy, an excellent defensive centerfielder with good offensive potential in Cabrera and a hell of a lot of money. Even if we didn't have to give up Wang in this deal, I would be very reluctant to make a trade like that. Here's why.

Say the Yankees pursue Torii Hunter or Aaron Rowand to replace Melky Cabrera. Rowand is 30 years old, and likely to not repeat last year again, and Hunter at 32 is even less likely. Both guys have decent pop. You can expect around 20 home runs from each guy. Melky when he hits his prime will probably be 12-15 homers at most. However, Melky has a better eye (8.8% BB rate versus Hunter's 6.6% and Rowand's 5.7%), strikes out less often than the two of them, and can possibly be a leadoff hitter within a year or two. As far as defense goes, Hunter and Rowand are not upgrades over Cabrera.

Torii Hunter (2007)
.891 zone rating and 47 plays made out of zone in 1314 innings
5.0 win shares
2 FRAA

Aaron Rowand (2007)
.861 zone rating and 69 plays made out of zone in 1373 innings
5.1 win shares
9 FRAA

Melky Cabrera (2007)
.910 zone rating and 33 plays made out of zone in 1072 innings
4.9 win shares
16 FRAA

The Yankees will have a solid 23 year old likely leadoff-type hitter (who could replace Damon when he's gone) who's excellent defensively for basically $500k. Rowand and Hunter will be slight upgrades offensively (they'll hit for more power, but probably put up similar/worse OBP) and downgrades defensively. They will be demanding Gary Matthews, Jr. type money (5 years $50 million) and they're both in the 30s. Sound like a good deal to you?

So essentially the Yankees will be paying $32 million a year more if they make the Wang-not-included deal (trade for and then sign Santana to an extension worth what he's likely to command) and they'll only marginally improve. And they'd probably be worse than before should they include Wang in the deal.

If there was a deal on the table along the lines of Kennedy and a couple second-tier prospects like Horn/Tabata or Ohlendorf for Santana, then that wouldn't be a bad deal if it was accepted. However, I find this kind of deal unlikely to happen.

EDIT: People have proposed a trade including Robinson Cano for Johan Santana

This is a bad idea in my opinion as well. And I think the Twins would want more than Cano, so this move would be bad in my opinion.

Robinson Cano (2007)
.306/.353/.488
41 2B, 19 HR

Screwing around with calculations, I got Cano creating 92-95 runs, which is just about what you'll find for other runs created formulas. An average major leaguer creates around 80. So he is worth about a full win to win and a half above average on offense. On defense, he is 31 FRAA. Combine the two, and he is worth about 45 runs more than an average player. So about 4.5 wins above average. Santana I don't think will merit a loss of 4.5 wins. Santana, as I said, will allow 70-80 runs in 215 innings. An average major league pitcher allowed 107 runs in 215 innings. So basically Santana will be worth 3.5-4 wins above an average starter. So the Yankees will lose about one win above average overall, assuming they even have an average second baseman next year as a replacement. And I know everyone's saying, "You win with pitching! You win with pitching!" No, you win with pitching, hitting, and fielding. Matsui is aging, Damon is aging, Abreu is aging, Jeter is aging. The Yankees offense will not be as formidable as it was last year in all likelihood. Think about it. Posada will not repeat last year. A-Rod will still be great (I can't believe he's actually back, I'd accepted him being gone) but not what he was this year, Damon and Matsui are likely not to improve much. Giambi hopefully gets in shape and stays healthy but you can't count on it. So Cano's bat (and glove while we're at it) is certainly desirable and you can't afford to lose him and possibly more pitching prospects for Santana.

As Yankees fans, we have to stop approaching each year as with a "Must win now!" attitude. It can lead to making deals for guys who put up flashy numbers at a suspicious (i.e. old) age and acquiring excellent players, but at great losses (good players you already have and lots of money). 2008 is a transition year as Douggy Bombs has said, and I am perfectly willing to accept that. If we do not make these deals, the 2008 Yankees will still likely be a very good team that can either win the AL East or the Wild Card. Plus, as already stated, Santana is a free agent at the end of 2008. With Pavano and Giambi coming off the books, and no more A-Rod, and the new Stadium being complete, look at all the money that will be available to land Santana and all the Yankees will have to give up is money. I know that whatever team trades for him will try to retain him, but what team will be able to offer the kind of contract the Yankees can? Few if any. Sure there have been times that the soon-to-be free agent who got traded at the July 31st deadline was signed to an extension. But there have been times that the free agent signed elsewhere. Randy Johnson in 1998. Carlos Beltran in 2004. So if the Yankees acquire Santana, it should be via free agent signing post-2008 season, not via trade.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Some projections for the Yankees, Part 1

So apparently the Yankees have made offers of about $40 million over 3 years to both Posada and Rivera. Hope they take them. Pettitte hopefully decides to come back. He declined his option but that's simply because he wants more time to think over his future. For now, here's what I expect out of the New York Yankees lineup next year.

1B Jason Giambi
I think the Yankees need to get this through to Giambi: this is your walk year. There's a team option for 2009 but there's no guarantee that we will pick up your option. So lose weight, be ready to play first base, we need your bat more than ever this year. That should give him a lot of incentive to show up in great shape and healthy.

I intend on coming up with a projection system of my own when I get the chance, but I will take some well-informed guesses right now based on as much info as possible.

130 G 550 PA 440 AB 120 H 25 2B 0 3B 33 HR 101 BB 12 HBP 105 K .273/.424/.555

Here's where I came up with these projections. If he stayed healthy, he would get into pretty much every game against righties and would get only occasional starts against lefties (like Nate Robertson) as Shelley Duncan would likely get the nod against the lefties. So I figure that he would get into 130 games and get about 550 plate appearances should he stay healthy. Looking at his BA/BIP in 2005, when he was hitting well, it was .293. The past two years he's been about .250-.260. His line drive percentage was 16% the past 2 seasons, but I think that if healthy, he will hit more liners, probably putting him around 18%. So I made a quick and dirty guess that his BA/BIP would jump to about .280ish. His strikeout rate in 2006 was 23%, so I figured he would be right around that, maybe slightly less. His walk rate was down to 13% this year, but I think that if he's any bit effective next year, he will be pitched to more carefully and draw walks at about an 18% rate, a more Giambi-like percentage. In 2005, he homered once every 13 at bats. I think that he could do just about the same in 2008 under these assumed conditions. So, having figured out all of this, it became mere calculation to come up with the totals, aside from basically just guessing the number of doubles he would hit. So if he could put these kinds of numbers up in 2008, I would be pretty happy.

2B Robinson Cano
I was very happy with Cano's explosion in the second half, going .343/.396/.557 with 13 homers. I was especially happy with his 24 walks in 329 plate appearances. That was a much higher walk rate than either of his other two full seasons. He is arguably the best second baseman in the AL. Polanco's a good player, but he got a little bit lucky this year. Cano is better. And fuck Dustin Pedroia. He's a big turd in a midget's body. Fenway Park just helps cover up the smell. Anyway, assuming Kevin Long works with him to maintain/improve his second half plate discipline, here's what I can see him doing next year.

155 G 670 PA 613 AB 199 H 40 2B 4 3B 23 HR 50 BB 7 HBP 73 K .325/.382/.515

Basically, I think he can be like a 1998 Derek Jeter, just with a little more power and less speed. These projections were based largely on his second half from this past season. Being a young player, you have to look at the most recent data more than you do a veteran (not to say that it's not important for an aging vet). His walk percentage was about 7.5% in the second half, so it should stay about the same if not get a little bit better. Maybe even 8%. His K-rate was 11% in the second half, and historically he hasn't struck out much. So I think it'll remain around the same, at about 12 or 13%. In the second half, he homered once every 22 at bats. For the season, he homered once every 32 at bats. I think that he'll be somewhere in between, leaning slightly towards the once per 22 at bats end. Say about once every 25 at bats. His BA/BIP in the second half was a beastly .354, which you cannot expect to last. Overall for the year it was .331. My guess is that it can be around .340 seeing as how his walking a little more will keep him from putting more weakly hit balls in play. He always hits a ton of doubles, so 40 is reasonable. His 7 triples this year was an anomaly, so my guess is he'll hit more like 3 or 4 next season. So overall, this is what I see happening for Cano.

SS Derek Jeter
Hard to believe but Derek Jeter is getting old. He is turning 34 next season. How will he respond to his tools diminishing over the next few years? They already have started to drop. His power has been declining, he appears to be losing a step, his range at short continues to shrink. However, I do think that he will be determined to put up a big season this year because the loss of A-Rod makes the Yankees lineup hard-pressed to compensate. So, here's what I think he can do next year realistically.

147 G 705 PA 626 AB 209 H 36 2B 2 3B 16 HR 64 BB 13 HBP 103 K .334/.407/.474

Now, I think Jeter's chances of hitting these numbers are lower than Cano's to hit my predictions for him, but this is feasible. As of mid-August, he was still hitting in the .330s with an OBP around .400. I'd originally had Jeter hitting more home runs, but I've realized that he probably will not. If he has a good year next year, it will look like this or 2006.

I will predict the rest of the team very soon.

Friday, November 2, 2007

Knicks Game 1 Preview - Jack is Back

Its been awhile folks and I apologize for that. I do hope you forgive me though as protecting the country is a full-time job....as is torturing terrorists and sending their asses back to where they came from.

Well, a new NBA season is underway and after how baseball went this season, it is a welcome change. The past NBA offseason was a memorable one. For example, we found out that referee Tim Donaghy bet on games he officiated. The sad part is this didn't really surprise as many people as it should have because the officiating was that bad in several games (e.g. The 2006 NBA Finals). Hell, that explains why the cast of the Sopranos is always seen at Knicks games. Another big story was obviously the Boston Celtics becoming relevant again with the Kevin Garnett trade. As if winning the World Series wasn't enough, Boston fans will also have the luxury of watching two other contending teams in football and basketball this year (deep breaths Jack....deep breaths).

For the Knicks, this offseason is certainly one they can afford to forget. Enough has been said about the sexual harassment case, so I'm not going to go into that at all. With that said, if any ladies want to make a quick $11.6 million, go meet Isiah Thomas. Sorry, had to get that one out. On a related note, I think the anthem to this season's Knicks team should be "Under Pressure" by Queen and David Bowie...

Anyway, the Knicks are in Cleveland tonight to play LeBron James.....err.... I mean the Cavs. While it would be easy to just say that this will be an interesting matchup (this WILL be an interesting matchup by the way), this should be a fun game to watch as the Knicks and Cavs usually get up for these games. Of course, this also happens to be the first Knicks game of the season, which seems to have some significance.

The good news for the Knicks is that Anderson Varejao, the energetic PF/C who comes off the bench for the Cavs, is still holding out (which means he won't be playing tonight). Varejao often does a good job guarding Eddy Curry so Eddy McNuggets should be able to get some good looks tonight.

With the good, comes the bad though. The bad news is that LeBron James only scored 10 points his first game, which happened to be on national television. You think LeBron has some motivation to improve on his .182 FG % and 10 ppg? Not to mention, the Cavs (because I just remembered that LeBron is on a team) just got completely outplayed on their homecourt by a very good Dallas Mavericks team. What I'm getting at is the Cavs will definitely be up for tonight's game. If the Knicks don't bring any game tonight, this will be a blowout.

So with that said, here are the keys to tonight's game for the Knicks:

1. E-ZPass (aka Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph) MUST be productive on the offensive end. If these guys don't give you offense, they certainly aren't going to give you any defense, making them useless. Hence, the Knicks need production from their top two options on offense? Make enough sense? Good.

2. Don't let LeBron score 50. Yes, I know this sounds foolish but here's the thing, LeBron is going to get his tonight. Players like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant don't follow up bad games with even shittier games. LeBron is going to look to dominate tonight so it would be foolish to say that the Knicks can hold him under 20. What you have to do though, is make sure he doesn't win the game by himself. If he is going to score 35 points, fine, there won't be much you can do to stop him from doing that if his shot is on. What you can do though, is make sure guys like Daniel Gibson and Larry Hughes don't also go off.

3. Give David Lee minutes. No, I'm not just saying this because I happen to be wearing a David Lee jersey right now (sue me), but its a fact, Lee was the team's most efficient player last year by far. He's a good rebounder, passer, and is very good at scoring off of offensive rebounds (alliteration anyone?). Plus, he is a God among men, he can turn water into wine, and part the Red Sea at the same time.....

4. Stephon Marbury has to play aggressive. By aggressive, I don't mean telling a Knicks intern to get in a truck and have sex with him, but I mean going to the hoop strong with the ball and finishing or dumping it off to E-ZPass (yes, I will make this name stick). Steph can't be on the floor just standing around and swinging the ball around the perimeter. If you ask Steph to do that, you are better off just playing Mardy Collins at PG. Its about time both the Knicks and Steph realize that the team is much better when he is a weapon on this team.

5. Use depth as an advantage. One of the major advantages the Knicks have going up against any team in the league, is the ridiculous amount of depth this team has. While the Knicks may still be the laughingstock of the league, their bench certainly isn't. David Lee is one of the top 6th men in the league, Nate Robinson is a good uptempo guard who seems to be getting it as he enters his 3rd pro season, Jeffries and Balkman are both guys that can defend multiple positions, and Fred Jones is a good defender who can also knock down an open 3 (a skill that is very much in demand on this Knicks roster).

So kick back tonight, grab a beer, and if the Knicks are losing, go get another cold one out of the fridge. Enjoy.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

Fuck Fenway Park

Fenway Park is a piece of shit

As if this wasn't already known. But let's take a look at it from a statistical point of view.

The Yankees, this year, hit 46% ground balls, 19% line drives, struck out 15% of the time, walked 9% of the time, and hit fly balls 10% of the time.

The Red Sox, this year, hit 42% ground balls, 18% line drives, struck out 16% of the time, walked 11% of the time, and hit fly balls 12% of the time. Considering the Yankees hit liners or grounders 5% more of the time, they should have a somewhat higher BA/BIP. But.......

Red Sox BA/BIP
.315

Yankees BA/BIP
.318

What can this be attributed to?

*drumroll*

That irregularly shaped, dilapidated, pile of green shit. Come hit at Fenway Park! Make friends with the Green Monster, which has been sprayed with the semen of mediocre hitters since 1912!

On the road, Yankees' BA/BIP was .341 approximately. The Red Sox had a BA/BIP of .325. So basically the difference was made up big time at Fenway. With that in mind, let's have a quick talk with free agent Mike Lowell.

B.A. Baracus: So Mike, you're a free agent. What do you think your value is?
Mike Lowell: Well, B.A. I'm an amazing hitter as I've told Joe Morgan. I hit .324 and I drove in 120 runs. It's all because I'm amazing. Whatever A-Rod gets, I should get at least 80-90% of that contract since I hit for a higher batting average and I drove in about 80% of the runs.
B.A. Baracus: That's pretty funny. Almost as funny as your 97 pt difference between home and away batting average.
Mike Lowell: SHHHH!!!!!! Not so loud! GMs like Kenny Williams wouldn't know that! He'd be too stupid to look that up. He'd see "World Series MVP". "120 RBI". "Age 34", which apparently would be attractive to him. I would miss the Green Monster, but who cares. I just needed him for one year. I love the Green Monster. I do, but for $20 million, I'll go play increasingly poor defense, make Joe Crede look like Mike Schmidt, stuff Uno's Deep Dish down my throat every night and take Ozzie Guillen calling me a "fatass faggot" everyday for all I care. I got what I wanted out of the Monster. On road trips to Boston I'll show him my gratitude.
B.A. Baracus: You don't think the Monster will feel used? He gave you a .373 home BA this year, a .993 home OPS, 13 of your 21 home runs and you're just going to go for the dollar signs?
Mike Lowell: You know how much the Monster gets? He could care less. This year it was me. Next year it can be Bobby Kielty for all Greeny, hehe I call him Greeny, cares. Monster just wants dick. It's been catching on.
B.A. Baracus: Apparently. You guys just get gayer by the minute.
Mike Lowell: And we're damn proud. Next year if the Sox win, Papelbon's going to do his gay Riverdance routine with just a red sock on. Red Hot Chili Peppers style.
B.A. Baracus: You guys have reached the bottom of the gay sewer underneath steaming piles of shit...and yet you continue to dig deeper.

As Douggy Bombs said, everything associated with the Boston Red Sox is gay and stupid.