Monday, June 30, 2008

This is just depressing

4 hits. 1 run. Off Scott Feldman. Owner of a 97 career ERA+, and an 88 ERA+ coming into today's game.

Every time you think this team and the slumping hitters are about to get going, they just go right back to looking like shit. As Replacement Level says all the time, WOE (Worst Offense Ever).

Robinson Cano, one of the most highly touted hitters in the game, expected to win batting titles, compared to Rod Carew...hitting in the .240s and we're now in July. He's been hitting a lot better lately, but still...end of June and hitting in the .240s.

Derek Jeter, one of the most consistent offensive players in baseball over the last 10 years...hitting .280 with no power, no patience, and looking awful as he does it.

Melky Cabrera, after looking great after the first month with 6 homers and an OPS in the .850s, seemingly not a fluke as he was taking pitches and hitting balls hard...can't hit worth a fucking damn. Coco Crisp is having a better season.

Bobby Abreu, "Bobby-on-base", "Bobby-base-on-balls", has just 32 walks and an OBP in the low .350s.

Phil Hughes, one of, if not, the best pitching prospect in all of baseball who showed towards the end of last year the kind of pitcher he can be...9.00 ERA and out until August with a fractured rib.

Hideki Matsui, one of the few consistent hitters on this team having an excellent season...on the 15 day DL with the possibility of needing surgery.

Chien-Ming Wang, owned in April, sucked in May, and then finally seemed to figure out how to get his sinker working again...turns his ankle rounding the fucking bases.

Brian Bruney, one of the few guys out of the bullpen who was pitching very well early on...foot injury, out for 2-3 months. (though he might be back very soon)

Just absolutely depressing. It's one thing when you know your team sucks. But all of these underperformances and injuries just suck. Matsui and Damon have overperformed. But everybody is either doing what's expected, a lot worse, or hurt. Underperforming pisses me off so fucking much. This team can't get on any sort of roll, and it just seems like they never will...

Brett Gardner: come on up

Hello, Brett Gardner. Welcome to the Bigs.

There certainly are some pros and cons to this youngster. Let's take a look at the cons, first.

Cons
1. .385 SLG in minors. However, he does have a .429 SLG this season, with 11 doubles, 10 triples, and 3 home runs in 282 ABs. So maybe he's starting to develop some extra base hit capabilities, though it's unlikely that they will apparent to us in his first stint at the MLB level.
2. Strikes out in 24.1% of his ABs. This is not good. For a guy who hits for pretty weak power, he shouldn't be striking out this much.

Pros
1. Excellent eye. Has walked in 13.4% of his plate appearances in the minors, with it being 17.3% in AAA this year.
2. Incredibly fast. 83% success rate in swiping bases, going 150-30. It'd be good to have a great SB threat on the bases.
3. Excluding the numbers he put up right after his midseason promotions, at each level, he's put up very high BABIPs, including this year's .357.

Could look at it this way. Reggie Willits has a Jason Tyner-like ability to hit home runs and he walks a ton, also, while striking out a fair amount (although in the majors, not the minors) and not putting up a tremendous average. If he could be Reggie Willits, that's not terrible. A guy at the bottom of the lineup that can get on base at a decent clip will certain help. And who knows, as my third "pro" states, when Gardner does put the ball in play, he gets a lot of hits. If he were to cut down on the strikeouts without losing his patience, he'd become a lot more valuable. Plus, it's possible that Cashman might want people to see this guy's patience and his speed, and hope that someone would jerk off to him enough to want to give up something worthwhile to acquire him.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

B.A.'s game review: But we lost our 8th inning weapon!!!!!

Joba Chamberlain pwns. On his 98th pitch last night, he threw a 97 mph fastball for strike three. I think this guy can start, people. And most encouraging about last night: 1 BB. I also loved how into his ABs he was. He's not far removed from college so hitting wasn't a problem for him. Who kidnapped bad Robby and bad Jetes? Cano version Rod Carew launched a bomb, and then lines 2 base hits right back up the middle. I hope he hits .500 for a month now. Jeter! Two shots off the wall in center! Is he finally quitting with that dragging of the hands crap and learning to drive the ball again? If so, then it's good and hilarious at the same time, since the Yankees are playing the Mets soon, and Jeter rips the Mets a new one every time he faces them. A-Rod said before the season Jeter was going to be an MVP candidate. Maybe this is what A-Rod was talking about. As bad as Jeter's been, he's still hitting .286 and OPSing .739, and he's trending upwards now. I hope he goes nuts the rest of the year and winds up hitting my projections, making me look like a genius :-) And if he were to finish around those projections, say, .330+/.400+/.460+, 15 HR, and continues to play the defense he's been playing (.858 ZR, 18 OOZ), he does make a good case for MVP. Unless of course, A-Rod finishes with 40 HR and a 1.000+ OPS. Abreu showing signs of life, too! 6 for his last 13 with 2 homers and a double. All we need from him now is a few more walks, and some better defense, though I'm not sure how much of either we're going to see... Ross Ohlendorf has great stuff, but he needs to be used correctly. He's not a mop-up guy/long reliever. He's the kind of guy that needs to go all out when he pitches. Pitch him one inning, and he can dominate. Don't push him for more. Now, let's see if this team can get on a roll and play like this for an extended period. If they can, they will close in on Boston and Tampa Bay. I'm still iffy about Tampa's rotation holding up and there's no way Boston will keep winning at their home clip. Here are several things which will happen:



1. Sean Casey won't keep hitting .365. (Not that he's a vital member of the team, but come on. What a joke.)

2. Kevin Youkilis will cool off in the second half as he always does. By the way, his first home run on Sunday, traveled 343 feet. That's a cheapo to start with. But, without the aid of wind, it would have traveled 295 feet. That's right. 295 feet. Even Fenway wouldn't have turned that into a home run on a normal day. He's not as bad as Lowell in terms of cheap home runs, but he doesn't exactly smoke the ball all that often, as 6 of his 13 homers have landed shy of 370 feet barring the atmospheric externalities. And trim that goatee, you dirtbag. You look ridiculous.




See Kevin? You looked normal then.

Now you just look like a prick.

3. Lester will come back to earth. He only strikes out 5.64/9 IP, and he's never historically been a big groundball type pitcher (1.49 GB/FB ratio this year). It's not totally luck, but if he had really made a vast improvement, you'd see the Ks go up. They haven't. They've gone down. Over his largest MLB sample, this is the lowest K rate he's had. His BB rate's also been the lowest, but I suspect that will change. This guy relies very much on his command to be effective and I don't see him consistently having it. As I've said before, he's basically a poor man's Andy Pettitte.
4. Masterson will have more games like he did the other day, and the "Get 'em a body bag!" comeback crap isn't going to happen every time.
5. Matsuzaka will continue to pay the price for walking 12 batters a game as it finally caught up to him in his first start coming back from injury. Ah, good to know that the baseball gods are on your side every now and then...

Let's go Yankees!

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Awful

Tom Gorzelanny allows TWELVE baserunners in 6 innings. He gave up numerous rockets. Of course, the Yankees couldn't buy a hit that meant anything. Posada hit 2 rockets right at people. Giambi hit a screamer right at Mientkiewicz. A-Rod just got under two balls to leftcenter and center. Melky misses a grand slam down the line by a few feet. Derek Jeter in a 2-0 count continues to live up to his new nickname, Derek "double plays" Jeter. Rasner didn't have it which means he had nothing, because his margin for error is so small. LaTroy Hawkins sucks. For someone who throws as hard as he does, to be striking out a meager 5.01/9 IP and walking 4.18/9 IP, that's just awful. I don't care if he's managed to have scoreless appearances in 18 of his 26 outings. That doesn't make up for how bad he is in other outings. It's not good when you can expect your pitcher to shit the bed 31% of the time. He's too volatile. Bring up David Robertson as soon as possible. And what the hell happened to Bobby Abreu's renowned ability to draw walks? He's walking in half as many plate appearances as he used to! His OBP is only 63 points above his BA. I don't care about the batting average as much, because that'll come back up, and his IsoP is right about where I expected it to be (.171 expected, .167 actual). It's the walks. If he can't OBP .380 in the number 3 hole, then get him out of there and plug Matsui in. Drop Abreu down.

The only silver lining in last night's game is Robby Cano's 3 hits. Granted, the first hit should have been an error, but with how much has gone against Cano this year, it was good to see him get a break. Then he picked up two more legit hits, one a liner through the hole between 3rd and short, the other a double into the right centerfield gap. That's more like it, Robby. If you want to salvage your season and finish at or around .300 with an .830-.840 OPS, now's the time to get hot and stay hot.

Let's hope that this is Rock Bottom #2 for the Yankees and that they start playing well again, without encountering Rock Bottom #3.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Typical YES Broadcast

I don't know about you guys, but I can't stand the YES Broadcasts anymore. Michael Kay has an annoying voice, and is an idiot. Singleton overanalyzes. David Cone, John Flaherty, Al Leiter, and Paul O'Neill all sound identical and you have to listen to them talk for a few seconds to figure out who they are. Oh, and don't worry, they'll give you plenty of opportunities for you to identify them. Too many. The scouting reports aren't scouting reports. It's more like a MySpace profile. It sucks.

Well, here's the transcript from Saturday's game, it was just unbearable.

Michael Kay: Well here's Dan Giese to start tonight's game, and you can see his numbers. Now, let's take a look at the scouting report for Dan. Take it away, David.

Screen: Dan Giese expert scouting report which is totally relevent to the substance of his pitches and/or style and no one else could tell you this
-Will he be good today?
-Picker
-Free Ballin'

David Cone: Alright, Michael. Dan Giese! Will he be good today? Well that depends on a lot of things. Does he throw good pitches? Does he have confidence that he can throw good pitches? Picker! That's right. He's a nose picker. That's what keeps him going in life. And of course, "Free Ballin'!" He does not wear a cup. He loves that freedom. That's why he wears a patch of the American Flag on his crotch and plays "I been lookin' for freedom" by David Hasselhoff when he comes in.

Bottom of the first
Michael Kay: Leading off here is Johnny Damon. Now, David, as an amazing former pitcher, how do you go about the first pitch to a guy like Johnny Damon here?
David Cone: Well, Michael, you want to throw a strike to Damon because leadoff walks are killers, but you also don't want to throw him too good a strike because he's a good hitter.
Michael Kay: And there's a strike to Damon, just like you thought! And we see Thompson going to the rosin bag. David, as a former fabulous pitcher, did you like using the rosin bag a lot?
David Cone: Well, Michael, the rosin bag is a great tool. Get that hand dry, get that grip that you need so you can have your command. It's a Godsend.
Michael Kay: And Johnny Damon breaks his bat again, but gets a nice bloop single! David, as a former superb right hander, didn't it really bother you when you broke a hitter's bat and still gave up a hit?
Random person walking past booth: No, pitchers love when weakly hit balls fall for hits. Shut up, you fatass.
David Cone: Oh it killed me, Michael. As a pitcher, you're really in the game. You just made your pitch. You executed real well, and it winds up looking like a line drive in the box score. It's certainly frustrating.
Michael Kay: Now, another thing. Johnny Damon used to be on the Royals. You were a Royals' fan growing up. Didn't that Chris Chambliss home run ruin your childhood?
David Cone: Oh indeed it did, Michael. That was a great Royals team, I still can't believe that ball went over the fence.
Smart Stat Guy in the Back (on phone with Douggy Bombs): That's another drink, Douggy. Michael Kay just brought up the Chambliss HR to Cone, again.
Douggy Bombs: Hehe, good.
Smart Stat Guy in the Back: Are you sure you want to keep drinking? We're only in the first inning. And you're facing Randy Johnson tonight.
Douggy Bombs: You just answered your own question.
Smart Stat Guy in the Back: Yeah, true. He's a dick and he sucks. Drinking can only help matters.

That's basically what YES Broadcasts are like...ALL GAME. They never shut up. It's infuriating. Gary Cohen's a Met weenie, but honestly, watching SNY Broadcasts is more tolerable to me.

Monday, June 23, 2008

B.A.'s still thinkin', foo!

Some more of B.A.’s thoughts

1. Mike Lowell probably hits the cheapest home runs of anybody that hits them with some regularity. His average home run travels a whopping distance of 364 feet. And of his 11 HR, only 4 of them would have been home runs in every/almost every MLB park. He also has no opposite field pop, as he has hit just 2 HR to right field in his entire career. Fuck him.

2. Robinson Cano at the plate has been bad, but his luck’s been worse. Going on batted ball data, he should be hitting .283/.322/.393. Certainly not good by Cano’s track record, but it’s certainly an easier line to salvage than .227/.270/.325! Overall he’s looking better at the plate, as he’s trying to cut down on his swing. Seeing him drive the ball a little bit more this week is a promising sign. He’s going to get hot, soon. And who knows, with his bad luck so far, maybe he’s due for a stretch in which every clunker and weak grounder avoids leather.

3. Interesting article on Phil Hughes, which is exactly what I’d said about him last month. Throwing his changeup and slider more often will make him a more effective pitcher, especially the slider since that’s more likely to be a plus-pitch for him as of now. Also, his change in mechanics is another issue. In 2006, he threw harder than he has the past 2 years. In the minors he was said to be a 91-95 mph guy who can touch 96, with late life on it. Now, he’s 88-92 occasionally touching 93.

And oh yeah, one more thing:

38 year old, Mr. "he's really washed up this time, you heard it here (Bill Simmons after every blown save of his the last 5 years"
35.1 IP, 17 H, 3 BB, 40 K, 0 blown saves, 0.76 ERA, 0.566 WHIP

27 year old, The McCarvian God among Men with Jesus powers
33.1 IP, 25 H, 5 BB, 43 K, 4 blown saves, 2.16 ERA, 0.900 WHIP

Pappy's awesome!!!

B.A. thinking away

No Chien-Ming Wang until September. This sucks.

Oh well, even if the Yankees don’t make the playoffs, this isn’t the end of the world. In a way, it could be good. The Yankees of course wanted to go somewhere this year, and they still very well can, but more importantly the Yankees want to get the young rotation’s feet wet.

Unfortunately, Horne is not MLB-ready yet, as Cashman would like them to spend a little bit more time down in AAA. Dan Giese will be the temporary fill-in for Wang. He's not bad. Throws 3 pitches, 87 mph fastballs and 76 mph curveballs and sliders. Also, he doesn’t walk people. If the Yankees can get 6 IP, 3-4 ER starts out of him for each start he fills in, that’s perfectly acceptable. His first outing was awesome, but we can’t expect that kind of command to last. Hopefully they’ll just use him to fill in for a few starts, as Kennedy makes his way back soon. If Kennedy continues to be ineffective (which I can’t believe he will, he’s better than he’s pitched), then I’d love to see Horne come up and make a few starts.

Alan Horne (minor leagues, currently 24)
2006 (A+)
123 IP
122 K
61 BB
4.83 ERA (but 3.91 FIP, so it looks as though he caught a few rough breaks)
2007 (AA)
153.1 IP
165 K
57 BB
3.11 ERA (3.23 FIP, more indicative of how he pitched)
2008 (AAA)
24.1 IP
22 K
10 BB
3.70 ERA

If Kennedy is ineffective filling in for Wang, then send Kennedy back down and try Horne. In that time, Horne can probably get 3 more starts, which would be great because Cashman wants Horne to get more work in before being brought up.

One thing that would be interesting to see is what the Yankees rotation will look like next year and in 2010. There are numerous combinations. The fates of Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte are unknown for next year. Do the Yankees resign one or both? Does Pettitte retire? These are important questions because Horne and McCutchen are both almost ready. Kennedy and Hughes will be healthy again, and likely better. Joba will be a full-fledged starter. Chien-Ming Wang’s still in the front of the rotation. And if Rasner continues his recent ways he makes a strong case for himself. That’s 7 starters without counting Pettitte and Mussina. It’s too early right now to speculate, but the decisions regarding Pettitte and Mussina are going to be key decisions in terms of the direction in which the franchise will go. I bet one of them comes back, and then you might be able to use Horne/Kennedy and/or McCutchen in a trade for possibly Bedard. Seattle’s awful, and they might want to get rid of his contract. I bet a trade of Kennedy/Horne, McCutchen, and Tabata could be enough for Seattle to send Bedard to the Bronx. If things play out with Wang, Pettitte/Mussina, Hughes, and Chamberlain, with Rasner as a backup/longman, the Yankees won’t need another 2 young starters with potential, whereas they could use a proven lefty like Bedard. They also don’t need the talented but moody, to say the least, Tabata. Besides, the Yankees have Austin Jackson and Brett Gardner coming up soon, so Tabata’s expendable. Imagine a rotation like this: Wang, Bedard, Pettitte/Mussina, Hughes, Chamberlain with Kennedy/Horne and Rasner as possible fill-ins should anything go wrong.

Bullpen-wise, I can’t wait to see David Robertson come up. He’s NASTY.

David Robertson (minor leagues, currently 23)
2007 (A)
47 IP
67 K
15 BB
0.77 ERA
(A+)
33.1 IP
37 K
15 BB
1.08 ERA
(AA)
4 IP
9 K
2 BB
2.25 ERA

2008 (AA)
18.2 IP
26 K
6 BB
0.96 ERA
(AAA)
29.2 IP
43 K
16 BB
1.82 ERA

He has a little bit of a control problem. But between AA last year and then AA this year, he brought his walks down. With a little more time in AAA he’ll bring his walks down again. But damn, 132.2 IP in the minors and 182 K. And 0 HR allowed. That’s domination. I want to see this guy up, soon. He can improve the bullpen and give them a rest later on in the year. Next year, he can fill the paramount role of “8th inning guy” that Joba gave up to fill a much less important starting rotation slot. Of course, unlike Joba, you get the most out of Robertson providing 3-6 outs late in the game than you would having him try to get through the first 21 outs.

And oh yeah, Girardi, can you maybe, once, just once, use Chris Britton? He’s not bad…

JB Cox unfortunately has been shut down for a little while due to his elbow, but he’ll be a good bullpen arm. It really is great to see that the Yankees have some talent in the minors to play with, either to fill roles on the team or to use in trades.

Wang’s injury sucks, but honestly, I’m not that upset about it. I want to see what else the Yankees have to offer.