Tuesday, January 1, 2008

The Santana Saga

According to Joel Sherman, the Red Sox remain the favorite to get Johan Santana.

Let me see if I understand this.

The Yankees were willing to offer the following:

Phil Hughes
age: 21
in an injury plagued rookie season, put up a WHIP of 1.280 and a K/9 IP of 7.2
has torn through the minor leagues

Melky Cabrera
age: 23
.750 OPS in his rookie year
129/99 K/BB ratio

While the Red Sox offered:

Jon Lester
age: 23 (ok)
1.57 WHIP in majors (yikes), 9.48 hits AND 4.61 BB per 9 IP (YIKES!) with minor league numbers that are hardly more than underwhelming

Coco Crisp
age: 28
.264/.317/.385 and .268/.330/.382 the past 2 seasons in a very hitter friendly ballpark

The Twins like the latter better than the former?!

Being a physics major, let me be a nerd. Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera are like gamma ray emitters. High energy, require thick concrete walls to absorb and even then they can't be totally stopped. These guys kick ass. Jon Lester and Coco Crisp are like alpha particle emitters. Thick, easily absorbed by the air, lower energy, and if they're ingested (i.e. signed to your roster) you're fucked.

Jon Lester is OK. At his best, he's going to be a #3 or #4 starter. He's a lefty, he can eat up innings, but he's just simply not that good. Crisp flat out sucks. He had 2 decent/solid seasons in Cleveland, but he's been garbage since. He's been a little injury-prone, so playing on artificial turf might not be that kind to him.

Plus, imagine going from Torii Hunter and Johan Santana to Coco Crisp and Jon Lester.

Stop, don't bother Twins fans. Imagining that would be cruel and unusual punishment.

Now, imagine going from Torii Hunter and Johan Santana to Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes.

OK enough Twins fans! Pleasuring yourself is meant to be done behind closed doors...

Well, hey. If the Twins want to trade gold for feces, go ahead. The best possible outcome is trading Santana to the NL, which would certainly be plausible if the Dodgers became willing to part with some of their young talent (Ethier, Kemp, Loney, etc.). Even with the Red Sox acquiring Santana, the Yankees are going to be better off hanging on to the youngsters.

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