Boston + Overrating = Angry B.A.

That equation is as fundamental as e = mc^2, or F = delta p, or Isiah Thomas + James Dolan = 2 assholes and 1 bad franchise.

I'm sick and tired of everyone who rants and raves about how awesome the Boston Red Sox rotation is and how scary it could be to face next year. Let's break this down:

Point #1: Esteban Louiza had a dominant year once, too.

Josh Beckett has one...ONE dominant year, and suddenly he's the greatest thing on God's green earth. Can we hold off on the coronation err ass-kissing err self-gratification err ejaculation for JUUUUST another season or two please?

I'm not saying the guy sucks. He is a good pitcher, but there are several pitchers in MLB I would take before I take Josh Beckett. He had a flukily low BB/9 IP relative to his career norms this year. He often pitched under little or no duress the whole season which probably helped lower his BB/9 IP total. He had a fairly low HR/FB percentage (8.0% vs. 10.2%). There are too many variables for Beckett to continue having the success of 2007. And if you look at his gamelog, in the few games he pitched this year that were close, he either walked a more typical number of batters and/or gave up home runs. Since I'm too lazy to do more than this, here are numerous examples of his walk rate increasing in close games:

April 21 vs. NYY 6.2 IP 2 BB 7-5 when pulled
May 2 vs. OAK 7.0 IP 2 BB 5-3 when pulled
May 13 vs. BAL 4.0 IP 2 BB 0-2 when pulled
June 3 vs. NYY 6.1 IP 3 BB 5-4 when pulled
July 20 vs. CHW 6.0 IP 2 BB 5-3 when pulled
Aug 24 vs. CHW 5.2 IP 3 BB 3-5 when pulled

Over those starts, that's a 2.91 BB/9 IP. Not terrible, but much more typical for him in his career.

Magglio Ordonez hit .363 this past year and OPS'd well over 1.000. Shit like this can happen, where a guy who is a good player to begin with has everything go right for him. He's going to walk more people next year (you generally do not improve your walk rate drastically at his age), he's going to give up some more home runs (96 mph fastballs will tend to find the head of the bat a little bit more like they did in 2006), and he will not get the same run support either. Red Sox scored 5.35 runs per game this past season but 6.42 runs when he was on the mound. So he's going to have to pitch under a little more duress next year. Beckett will likely have an ERA around 3.80 to 4.00 in this upcoming season.

Point #2: Curt Schilling's a fat, lazy, old piece of shit with a mouth that defecates it as well.

Anyone who expects more than an ERA around 4.00 to 4.25 in 160 IP from him is deluding themselves. He's fat, he's injury prone, his stuff is not nearly what it once was, etc. He won't walk people because he never has (though it might go up marginally since he has to be more of a finesse pitcher now, but nothing significant), but he's going to give up more hits because he can't get his fastball by as many people anymore and he always gave up home runs. Ideally, I'd like to see him go 0-18 with a 17.39 ERA to break Roy Halladay's record for worst ERA in over 40 innings by about 7 runs, but God provides Heaven on earth in instances that are few and far between. After I die and hopefully go to Heaven, this will happen.

Point #3: Daisuke is just not that good.

He's not. It's as simple as that. The Yankees kicked his ass numerous times, for example. Yeah, sure he struck out lots of guys this year. But he's very hittable (191 H in 204 IP), will give up long balls (25 of them), and can lose his control at any moment (look at how many times he walked 3-5 guys in a game. "Too many times Turtle...too many times").

Everyone's so scared of this rotation...

A rotation of Wang-Pettitte-Hughes is probably better...
A rotation of Halladay-McGowan-Burnett/Marcum could be better...
A rotation of Lackey-Escobar-Weaver is probably better...

You could do a lot worse than Beckett-Schilling-Matsuzaka, but let's stop salivating on and swinging from their nuts, huh?